An Early Evaluation of 2009 Bobcats
01/01/2008Charlotte has played 9 games following the swap of Jason Richardson and Jared Dudley for Boris Diaw, Raja Bell, and Sean Singletary. While too soon for a definitive answer, it does not seem too soon to look at their impact thus far. A cursory glance at the team record would make it seem like a solid base hit, if not a homerun, as the Bobcats have gone 4-5 with their new additions. Compared to their near-cellar dwelling performance of 7-16 pre-trade, this recent "flurry" of victories would seem to cement the success of the trade. Right?
Well, not exactly. There are some extenuating circumstances to consider - such as the schedule difficulty faced. Since the trade, Charlotte has faced: Detroit and Atlanta initially (not an easy start for the new guys), but then Chicago, Memphis, Golden State, Washington, New Jersey (twice), and the Knicks. Looking at that lineup of opponents - is 4-5 something to be that excited about?
Some numbers to consider about the schedule difficulty:
Pre-trade Cumulative Opponent:To condense all those numbers into a more readable idea: Pre-trade, Charlotte was bad against a not great schedule. Post-trade, Charlotte has been good against a weak schedule. But not great. They still have a net efficiency relative to schedule in the negatives following the trade - meaning that while the Bobcats are beating these guys, others are beating them by more.
Offensive Efficiency: 103.4
Defensive Efficiency: 105.9
Net Efficiency: -2.5
The Bobcats had a net efficiency of -4.1 (offensive 101.6, defensive 105.7) against an opponent that was -2.5; we'll call that -6.6 relative to schedule (efficiency minus opponent efficiency).
Post-trade Cumulative Opponent:
Offensive Efficiency: 108.1
Defensive Efficiency: 113.4
Net Efficiency: -5.3
Since the trade, the Bobcats have a net efficiency of +2.9 (offensive 103.5, defensive 100.6). Combined with their competition's numbers, the post-trade Cats have a -2.4 net efficiency, relative to schedule.
I will leave that dead horse now and focus on who is responsible for the turnaround that we have seen. The quick answer might seem obvious and that is to give credit to Boris Diaw. He is averaging 15 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 4.9 assists since coming to Charlotte, and the team is +4.2 with him on the floor. Good numbers to be sure, but he has not been without faults. 3.9 turnovers per game and only 1.13 points per shot - Boris has had 5 straight games with at least 4 turnovers (and 6 of 9 overall). He has had 3 games of shooting 30% or less (going 3-10, 3-14, and 3-10 in those games - not lacking for effort, for sure). I am not denying that Boris has had a positive impact - the team is passing better and the offense is scoring more efficiently (again, in part due to the schedule) since his arrival. But 2 other players are the ones who have really stepped up their production (and if you do not know who they are, I am not sure you have been paying attention).
Who else would it be but Gerald Wallace and Emeka Okafor. Since Boris' arrival, Gerald has been unreal - 20.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.3 blocks - good for a WP48 mark of .438. Prior to the trade, Gerald was at 15.3, 7.6, 2.2, 2, and 0.8, with a WP48 of .199 (I am including the WP48 number as it includes shooting efficiency and turnovers, to give a more complete sense of the turnaround - .1 is average - .438 is Chris Paul/LeBron James type territory). I had mentioned is my post-trade writeup that I thought the trade would benefit Gerald - but I did not expect it to be this dramatic. Had the trade occurred prior to the start of the season, Gerald would have a solid case for an All-Star selection.
And so would Emeka: With Boris around, Okafor has gone off to the tune of 17.3 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks per game (WP48 of .326). Pre-Boris: 12.6, 10.8 and 1.7, WP48 of .253. Those post trade numbers certainly look All-Star worthy in the East (well, behind Dwight Howard of course).
Final numbers: Having already mentioned the efficiencies of Charlotte pre and post trade, I just want to note 2 other numbers: Assist rate and turnover rate. Before the trade, Charlotte had an assist on 17.9% of opportunities (opportunities, not field goals - this accounts for turnovers, offensive rebounds, etc) and turnovers on 14.8% of chances. Since the trade, the assist rate is up to 22.1%...and the turnover rate is up to 14.9%, even with Boris turning the ball over what seems like every other possession sometimes. Considering that his teammates are still getting used to him and his pass-happy ways, I would think that first number could go up even slightly more, while the second number might drop as guys start to expect his passes. An offense that creates more easy looks for teammates and moves the ball better? 2009 might be looking up for Charlotte after all.
Click here to comment/view comments for this post.
| maggiejinx Says: | Nobody ever gives anybody any credit. If you are watching the Bobcats it is plain to see they are playing very well, and Diaw is a wonderful addition. I was hoping he wouldn't be so they would trade him to NY, same for Bell, but with Diaw playing his socks off I am afraid Charlotte will keep him. I want the old D'Antoni team put back together again. Tonight the Knicks beat the Celtics, and what do you bet all the pundits will say it is because the Celtics didn't play very well, they won't say the Knicks beat their pants off. Sometimes it would be nice to give credit where it is due. |
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| Sun Jan 04, 2009 10:36 pm |
| Brett Says: | Maggie - I know the post is not all puppies and sunshine, but I thought it was worth acknowledging the fact that the Bobcats have played a relatively weak schedule recently. And if that was not your gripe with the article and it was about short-changing Diaw, instead, it is not as though I was saying Diaw was horrible and the Bobcats had no hope. I pointed out Diaw's strong numbers and his weak ones, trying to show a well-rounded look at his influence. I even close the article noting that I expect to see continued improvement from the team specifically because of Diaw's talents. I admit that I am not the type of fan who blindly defends the team or players through anything - I try to look at them realistically, without orange-tinted glasses on. However, I do not think that just because I am not the type to push all Bobcats as All-Stars that I am a doom and gloom fan (or blogger). Thanks for reading but I think you are seeing something that is not there. |
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| Sun Jan 04, 2009 11:13 pm |
