The Bobcats Blunder Redux

07/16/2007

In the second round of the 2007 NBA draft, the Charlotte Bobcats used their recently acquired pick from the Jason Richardson trade on a 6' 10" 240 lb power forward. Unfortunately, they picked the one that went to Alabama and not Duke. I was not pleased when I first saw this, and over time I've grown even less so.

Jermareo Davidson, a senior out Alabama University, and Josh McRoberts, a sophomore out of Duke University, have more in common than their physical size. According to KenPom, they are similar players in several areas.
As rebounders, they both averaged about 8 per game and their rebound rates were close, as Josh grabbed 7.6% of available offensive boards and 19.4% on defense, while Jermareo was at 7.5% and 19.9%. They were also comparable in blocking shots, as McRoberts blocked 2.5 per game, 6.9% of available shots, and Davidson was at 2.3, but a slightly better 7.4%. So, I'd call their defensive work and rebounding abilities a draw.

Offensively, Jermareo averaged 14 points to 13 for Josh. However, he did that while shooting 40.7% from the field, with an effective field goal % of 41.3. For Josh to get his 13 points, he shot 50.2% with an EFG of 50.9%. To further illustrate the discrepancy in scoring efficiency, Josh had a points per shot average of 1.31, while Jermareo was only at 1.14. Now, neither of these players were great offensively, but Josh was a measurably more effective scorer. In addition, he was much better at creating offense for his teammates, averaging 3.5 assists per game to only 1.5 for Jermareo.

Now, you may be willing to forgive the slight discrepancies on offense for a higher potential player. But the most significant thing about these two is age: Josh McRoberts is a full 2 years younger than Jermareo Davidson, meaning he is still just beginning to reach his potential as a basketball player, and Jermareo should be much closer to his ceiling. Considering that they are already equals (at worst for McRoberts), then the Bobcats needed to consider the potential of the players going forward, and potential would have indicated the man to take was Josh McRoberts, though I'm sure Portland was pleased with Charlotte's decision, since they grabbed McRoberts with the very next pick.

I'll be following the respective seasons of both players this year and going forward to see if the Bobcats erred again. You can follow it here.

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