Looking Back (and Forward) at Gerald Wallace
10/06/2008It looks as though I might need to pick up the pace on this series if I want to get it done prior to the start of the season. No promises - but I think I will get it done. Next up: Gerald Wallace. Crash...is a perplexing case. As a scorer, he was at his best and worst since his first year in Charlotte. As a passer and creator - better than ever. In all other categories - this past season could be seen to be lacking. Let us start with the number most fans start with: Points per game.
Gerald scored 19.4 points per game in 07-08 - easily passing his previous best of 18.1, and nearly becoming the second Bobcat to average 20 per game (he would have been joining Jason from last year). However, because Gerald played almost 2 minutes more per game last year, his per 40 minute number is not as dramatically different from the year prior: 20.2 to 19.7. What I really want to look at though is what it took to get those numbers.
| Crash and Scoring | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | PPS | TS% | FTA/ FGA (%) | 3FGA/ FGA (%) | |||||
| 06-07 | 1.370 | 56.8% | 47.0% | 12.6% | |||||
| 07-08 | 1.322 | 54.7% | 47.1% | 24.3% | |||||
So, yes, Gerald did score more last year - but only because he shot more. Crash was less efficient from the floor, leading to a drop in points per shot and true shooting percentage. Seeing Jason jack up so many 3's must have looked like fun, because Gerald nearly doubled the rate at which he took them. For some players, this is an effective way to improve PPS and TS% - but it does not work when shoot only 32% on your threes. The only thing that saved Gerald's efficiency numbers from plummeting further was that he somehow managed to slightly increase the rate at which he drew fouls. With the increased reliance on jumpers (and fewer offensive rebounds), that is a tough one to explain. Maybe a Bobcat is starting to get some "star treatment" from the refs?
The parenthetical remark about offensive rebounding leads into the next area of concern for Gerald: Last season, he stopped doing what had set him apart previously. After averaging 8.7 rebounds per 40 minutes in 05-06 and 7.8 in 06-07, that number dropped to 6.3 this past season. That decrease in rebounding prowess happened almost exclusively at the offensive end, as his per game totals dropped from 2.2 to 2 to 0.9 on offensive boards. Crash made his mark by playing a wide open style of basketball that resulted in slams, boards, blocks, and highlights galore (well, plus injuries) - but he removed himself from that role quite a bit this past season. Why?
Well, in part, because of those injuries. Who can blame him? Concussions are a very serious injury and Gerald probably slowed himself down a bit out of self-preservation. But could another part of the decline in his numbers be due to personnel and where he spent his time this past year? Unlike 06-07, when Gerald spent about half his season at PF, that number dropped this past season, negative 17%. Huh? Well, actually, Gerald spent even more time at PF this year than he had previously - nearly two-thirds of his court time was at the 4. That finding makes Gerald's season all the more surprising - his rebounding decreased dramatically despite being given significantly more opportunities at it. What gives?
That leads back to his new found love of the 3. By doubling his rate of attempts from 3-point land, Gerald took him self farther from the paint and further from offensive rebounding position. Considering that Matt Carroll is getting chewed out by Larry Brown for taking 3's in training camp, I think it is a good bet that this new part of Gerald's game is reined back in a bit in the year ahead.
What else to expect? Well, it might finally be the year we see less of Gerald at the 4 - between a full-season of Nazr to pair with Emeka, possible health (getting anything, even a single game) from Sean May, and another year of development for Jermareo, there should be more palatable options than risking Crash's long-term health. It does remain to be seen if Crash returns, even a bit, towards the board clearing forward that gathered such support and adoration from Bobcat faithful. If not, his value is far less, dropping towards just an average player (as seen by his PER drop from 21.32 to 19.83 to finally 17.57 last year). $9.5M a season says we need and expect more than average from Gerald.
Looking Back (and Forward) Series:
Raymond Felton
Jared Dudley
Matt Carroll
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| zach Says: | http://freedarko.blogspot.com/2008/10/fd-guest-lecture-i-found-piano-player.html | ||
| Tue Oct 07, 2008 11:14 pm |
| Brett Says: | Normally, I would delete links posted in the comments like that. This one is good enough to stay. Go check it out. | ||
| Wed Oct 08, 2008 7:07 am |
