Looking Back (and Forward) at Jared Dudley
09/18/2008When doing posts like these, the temptation is there to describe a player in terms of another – In putting together the Carroll review, I discussed him extensively, relative to and in comparison with Jason Richardson. There can be value in that, because it creates a reference point, another known quality that can be used as a basis for discussion. And the urge to follow a similar approach with Jared Dudley is quite strong – but I think I am going to do this without naming names, just because sometimes the comparisons detract from who is being discussed. With the preamble complete, I want to look at Jared “The Dude” Dudley and see what he brings to the Bobcats.
Jared's season averages are nothing special, at 5.8 points per game, 4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and 0.8 steals. They look more impressive when you consider that he got those numbers in less than 20 minutes a game – extrapolated out to per 40 minute averages: 12.2 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.7 steals. That is some decent box score stuffing, especially the 8.3 rebounds out of the small forward spot (Hmm – good rebounding small forward, who does that remind me of? Nevermind, no comparisons today). Of those theoretical 8.3 rebounds, 3.5 would come on the offensive end – which is even more impressive than the 8.3. The league leader in offensive rebounds this past season averaged 4.1 per game (in 36 minutes, granted) but also stands 7-1. Impressive work, Jared. How impressive? Well, how about this:
Number 6 among small forwards in rebound rate (qualifying players)Win score is generally considered to overvalue defensive rebounds, and on a team that rebounds as poorly as the Bobcats, someone has to grab them. Offensive rebounds though? Well, a player who grabs those is basically negating a turnover by a teammate and giving his team a second chance. (Ok, 70% of a turnover, assuming the offense manages to get about 30% of offensive rebounds, approximately the league average). One last word on offensive rebounding: With Jared on the court last year, the Bobcats grabbed 31.1% of available offensive rebounds. When he was on the bench, that number drops to only 27.6%. That is a couple of shots a game, easily the difference between a win and a loss.
Number 1 SF in offensive rebound rate, at 9.9.
WS48 - .161 – well above the league average of .10. But…
Speaking of winning and losing, how did the team fare with Jared on and off the court overall? Pretty well, as they lost by only 2.1 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, but were -5.1 with him off of it. He spent a fair amount of his season playing with the scrubs though, and that is bound to have impacted his numbers, right? Dramatically – his and the teams. Below, I have combined some of Jared's stats when playing with the core players. The results are interesting.
| The Dude and his numbers | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Time | Pts 36min | Points Per Shot | FG% | FTA FGA | O Reb 36 min | D Reb 36 min | Steal 36 min | TO 36 min | |
| Core | 524.0 | 8.7 | 1.16 | 46.8 | 0.2385 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Scrubs | 857.1 | 12.4 | 1.24 | 46.9 | 0.3849 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| The Dude and Efficiencies | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Off Eff | Def Eff | Net Eff | |
| Core | 109.6 | 105.6 | +4.1 |
| Scrubs | 104.4 | 110.3 | -5.9 |
The “Core” minutes are actually the lineups that he played with that were on the court more than a combined 30 minutes over the course of the season (excluding Earl Boykins – his presence wrecks the defensive efficiencies of any and everyone). The group of teammates includes: Matt Carroll, Jason Richardson, Gerald Wallace, Raymond Felton, Jeff McInnis, Emeka Okafor, and Nazr Mohammed.
The numbers tell this story: Jared plays worse with better teammates (and presumably better competition) – but the team is significantly better with him on the floor. His personal performance makes sense – tougher competition should result in poorer personal results. It is hard to explain how having Jared on the floor makes this combination of Bobcats players so competitive, though. I mean, his numbers with the core are far from overwhelming: He hardly shoots (though, for this team, 1.16 pps is not bad), he does not rebound nearly as effectively, he turns the ball over too much for someone who is doing so little in the offense, and his steals go down. What does a guy have to do to get benched, right?
Well, not exactly – despite being down from his overall averages, his rebounding numbers are still pretty solid for a 3. More importantly, it seems that Jared recognized his role in the offense: Minimal. He was surrounded by Gerald, Jason, Matt, Emeka, Raymond, and Nazr (some combination, anyway) – all of those guys needed to get their shots, and Jared's numbers seem to indicate he recognized his place on the totem pole. There is something to be said for a player who does what is needed to win, even if it does not show up in the box score: From these numbers, Jared was either doing some serious coat-tail riding, or making contributions that are tougher to quantify. From watching him play last year, my money is on the intangible.
In the year ahead, Jared would seem to be a good fit for Larry Brown: A player who “plays the game the right way”, hustles, rebounds, and defends. While not the most gifted athlete, he seems to already be a very intelligent one, drawing plenty of fouls and tracking down more rebounds than one would expect. I think LB finds time for him and we get to continue to see him head fake his way to more “and ones” in 08-09. “Yeah, well. The Dude abides.”
Click here to comment/view comments for this post.
Saving Your Comment
