The lineups that shaped the 2006-07 Season: Part 2

08/14/2007

See the first part of this series here

The early returns on my hypothesis do not look good, as there have been 2 quick strikes against it: First, there are 21 lineups in today's post, but only 17 in yesterday's. And second: The team's most used lineup, with over 3 games worth of action together, is in today's post. What can I say? I'm still going to be a biased fan on occasion, and that prediction came due to my fondness for the team.
On to the break down of the lineups that helped the Bobcats lose games last year:

Player Names	Points	Poss	Opp Points	Opp Poss	Time	Off Eff	Def Eff	Adj +/-
Adam Morrison Derek Anderson Emeka Okafor Primoz Brezec Raymond Felton	60	64	61	65	35:20	0.9375	0.9385	-0.0010
Despite having more offensive rebounds than their opponent (16 to 10), and a slight edge in turnovers (7 to 8), this lineup was detrimental to the team because of their inability to throw the ball in the ocean: They hit only 35% from the field.
Adam Morrison Emeka Okafor Gerald Wallace Raymond Felton Sean May	229	218	238	223	115:36	1.0505	1.0673	-0.0168
This lineup managed to take it one step further: A slight edge in fg%, turnovers, and offensive rebounds, only to be done in by sending their opponent to the line far more often than they made the trip.
Derek Anderson Emeka Okafor Matt Carroll Primoz Brezec Raymond Felton	131	128	132	126	67:59	1.0234	1.0476	-0.0242
Nothing bad to say here.
Adam Morrison Brevin Knight Jake Voskuhl Matt Carroll Walter Herrmann	74	62	81	66	41:43	1.1935	1.2273	-0.0337
113-110 (with the Bobcats on the short end of it). That's what the score would look like if this team played a full game (assuming the 92 possessions they averaged last year). At least they would make losing a bit more fun to watch.
Emeka Okafor Gerald Wallace Jake Voskuhl Matt Carroll Raymond Felton	83	82	82	77	42:37	1.0122	1.0649	-0.0527
Their narrow margin to the negative is most easily explained by their narrow margin behind the opponent in fg%: 49% for the Bobcats to 51% for the opposition.
Brevin Knight Emeka Okafor Gerald Wallace Matt Carroll Raymond Felton	32	37	33	35	27:47	0.8649	0.9429	-0.0780
I'm surprised that this lineups defense was as good as it was, to be honest: Matt Carroll at SF and Gerald Wallace at PF? Who were they playing? Air Force?
Derek Anderson Emeka Okafor Gerald Wallace Matt Carroll Raymond Felton	227	223	250	228	136:10	1.0179	1.0965	-0.0786
They managed to hold their own on the glass, but allowed the bad guys to shoot over 50% from the field (and that's over the course of about 2.5 games).
Gerald Wallace Jake Voskuhl Matt Carroll Raymond Felton Walter Herrmann	66	68	69	65	33:11	0.9706	1.0615	-0.0910
This group gave up an offensive rebound on almost every other missed field goal, while only pulling in 1 out 6 of their misses.
Emeka Okafor Gerald Wallace Matt Carroll Primoz Brezec Raymond Felton	155	155	179	159	83:47	1.0000	1.1188	-0.0990
I'm noticing a pattern here: They did everything fairly well, except the other team shot the ball better: 47% to 54%. So, really, they did everything decently except play defense. Minor detail.
Derek Anderson Gerald Wallace Jake Voskuhl Matt Carroll Raymond Felton	129	121	140	119	60:43	1.0661	1.1765	-0.1104
With Gerald Wallace playing the 4, the Bobcats need Emeka in the paint, to make the defense passable. In this lineup, Jake was left to be the defensive enforcer. Needless to say, this lineup would struggle to stop some high school teams.
Derek Anderson Emeka Okafor Gerald Wallace Primoz Brezec Raymond Felton	53	58	60	58	35:55	0.9138	1.0345	-0.1207
And we'll call this lineup "The Virgins".
Adam Morrison Brevin Knight Emeka Okafor Gerald Wallace Raymond Felton	289	302	332	306	155:53	0.9570	1.0850	-0.1280
The Bobcats most used lineup. And that is not a good thing: Based on their adjusted +/-, they'd lose a game where they played all 48 minutes by 12 points (92 possessions * -0.1280 = -11.8 points per game).
Adam Morrison Brevin Knight Gerald Wallace Jake Voskuhl Matt Carroll	59	52	65	51	25:47	1.1346	1.2745	-0.1399
Good offense, really bad defense. You'd probably see better defense played at your local Y.
Adam Morrison Emeka Okafor Gerald Wallace Primoz Brezec Raymond Felton	108	120	122	117	62:07	0.9000	1.0427	-0.1427
Maybe they could score with Paris Hilton, but even that might be a stretch.
Adam Morrison Emeka Okafor Gerald Wallace Jeff McInnis Raymond Felton	70	71	81	68	35:58	0.9859	1.1912	-0.2053
The trifecta: Out-rebounded, out-shot, and out-taking care of the ball'd.
Adam Morrison Emeka Okafor Gerald Wallace Jake Voskuhl Raymond Felton	72	69	89	71	38:37	1.0435	1.2535	-0.2100
Out shooting the opposition (50% to 49%) was not nearly enough to offset their shortcomings rebounding and taking care of the ball.
Adam Morrison Derek Anderson Emeka Okafor Gerald Wallace Raymond Felton	101	107	122	102	54:28	0.9439	1.1961	-0.2522
They gave up 52% from the field. Did teams look forward to playing the Bobcats and bringing their shooting percentages up?
Adam Morrison Gerald Wallace Jake Voskuhl Matt Carroll Raymond Felton	91	94	116	93	51:13	0.9681	1.2473	-0.2792
Crash is the only one of the 5 who is an above average rebounder, if considered at their natural positions. Unfortunately, he is masquerading as a 4 in this unit, so even he does not qualify. Even bigger problem: Given 13 more opportunities from the floor than their opponent, this group managed to still make one less shot than the other team did.
Adam Morrison Emeka Okafor Gerald Wallace Raymond Felton Walter Herrmann	51	51	67	49	26:12	1.0000	1.3673	-0.3673
Well, at least the fans of one team would enjoy this game: This lineup would give up 131 points per game.
Adam Morrison Brevin Knight Gerald Wallace Jake Voskuhl Raymond Felton	67	75	98	77	42:01	0.8933	1.2727	-0.3794
55% shooting to 39% shooting explains it all.
Adam Morrison Emeka Okafor Matt Carroll Primoz Brezec Raymond Felton	42	49	58	46	28:13	0.8571	1.2609	-0.4037
In a 92 possession game, this lineup would be good for 79 points. The NBA: It's fantastic(ly boring, sometimes).

3 themes I noticed in going through these losing lineups:
1. Giving up a high field goal %: The Bobcats struggled to play defense, and a large factor in that is the size of the lineup that is routinely on the floor. With only Emeka as a true post player on the court a lot of the time, that leaves Gerald (or someone else undersized) with the task of guarding the opponents power forward. I'm a big Crash fan, but that is not in our best interest.
2. Poor Rebounding: This goes back to point 1, but it needs to be reiterated. The Bobcats were undersized last year, and that affected them on the glass as well as defensively. They gave up a lot of offensive rebounds, and while they gathered a decent amount themselves, that was partly due to their lower shooting percentage.
3. Low field goal %: This team struggled to score. With 3 regulars who shot below 40% from the field for the season (Brevin Knight, Raymond Felton, Adam Morrison), this is not that surprising.

Final Thoughts:
It is very tempting, but I am not going to pass judgment on individual players based on these lineups. Later in the week, I will do a break down of each player's personal adjusted +/-. Until then, I'll be thinking about what the Bobcats have done to shore up one weakness, poor shooting, by bringing in Jason Richardson, and what they can do to address the other, lack of quality depth in the post.

Leave Your Comment