Looking Back (and Forward) at Matt Carroll
09/16/2008Matt Carroll and Jason Richardson – they were the pair that got my last post started, so I decided that I should start with them for the season reviews/previews for each player. Since Carroll has been a Charlotte Bobcat longer, he goes first overall. But I am still going to talk a lot about Jason in this post. There is just no way around it, due to the significant impact Richardson's acquisition had on The Hammer’s game. The strangest thing: That impact was negative – and positive. I know it does not make sense, but it is what the numbers show. Look for yourself:
| Carroll with and without Richardson | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J-Rich Status | Time | 3FGA FGA | Pts 36min | FGA 36min | Points Per Shot | FTA FGA | TO 36 min |
| With | 1321.3 | 41.5 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 1.249 | 26.8 | 1.0 |
| Without | 694.1 | 39.9 | 13.6 | 11.6 | 1.179 | 17.9 | 1.2 |
| Carroll with and without Richardson | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| J-Rich Status | Off Eff | Def Eff | Net Eff |
| With | 110.1 | 107.9 | +2.2 |
| Without | 101.4 | 108.7 | -7.3 |
With Jason on the court, Matt became a less involved part of the offense, as he shot less and committed fewer turnovers (mentioned to show his reduced time with the ball). He was more effective with his scoring though, as his PPS was significantly higher, as well as his rate of drawing fouls. That is where the oddities start coming in: With Jason on the court, Matt shot more 3 pointers as a percentage of his attempts, but at the same time he began to get to the line more often (as a proportion of FTA to FGA). Those two percentages do not tend to go hand in hand, as jump shooters generally do not draw many fouls – but Carroll bucked that trend here, the same as he has throughout his career. For someone regarded as more a shooter than scorer, Carroll actually has drawn fouls at a good rate throughout his career: In 06-07, he drew 31.6 FTA per 100 FGA – that came down to 23.4 this season.
Why exactly? It is tough to pinpoint, as the rate at which Carroll shot 3's hardly budged, at ~40% of his attempts both seasons. Either the opposition is learning to defend him better, or he was just less aggressive on his drives this year. Considering his rate of FGA attempts per 36 minutes decreased from 12.6 to 10.5 from 06-07 to 07-08, I would say a good bit of the decrease is due to the latter. It would seem that with Jason Richardson on the team, Carroll subjugated (voluntarily or not) his game to get more shots for Jason.
Is that in the best interest of the team? No. Well, probably not. Last season was Jason Richardson's best year of his career with respect to points per shot (PPS), 1.218 (1.147 for his career). Last season for Matt was one of his worst, at 1.222. Yes, one of his worst was better than J-Rich's career best. For his career, Carroll is at 1.264 PPS. Now, I am not arguing that Carroll should be the starter and Richardson getting mop-up duty. Jason has other skills that Matt lacks, notably rebounding and tremendous leaping ability. But, I am arguing that the distribution of shots between the 2 should not be so disparate, as Carroll has demonstrated a proclivity for putting the ball in the basket (and so ends the vocabulary section of the post).
Season Outlook: It depends on how Hammer fits in LB's plans. What needs to happen is that Carroll gets more opportunities when on the floor, because he continues to be one of the most proficient scorers the Bobcats have. What should happen is what was expected last year: Slightly fewer minutes, as a result of J-Rich (and Dudley and Ammo and etc.), but relatively consistent per minute numbers, that will hopefully bounce back to his 06-07 levels, 16.7 points per 36 minutes, as opposed to the 12.9 of a year ago. Will it happen? Good question but one we cannot answer just yet.
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