Negative Nancy on Gerald's Rebounding Title
Posted by Brett on 11/10/2009Bonnell got the ball rolling with Wallace is the NBA's chairman of the boards.
No surprise the NBA's rebounding leader would be on the floor for tonight's Bobcats-Magic game: Orlando center Dwight Howard has led the league the past two seasons.Bethlehem Shoals got in on the action with Gerald Wallace, World's Smallest Rebounding Champ?.
Huge surprise that Howard isn't the one leading the league. That would be Bobcats small forward Gerald Wallace, averaging at least two more rebounds than anyone else.
But Wallace (or, as I will forever refer to him, "Multiplicity") isn't just getting rave reviews from the coaching staff, necessitating a token quote on the matter. Dude is actually leading the league in rebounding. Like, pulling in more per game than Dwight Howard himself.I am going to be a negative Nancy on this one and point out a couple of reasons this is not going to happen (I know no one really thinks it will, but it provides an opportunity to point out a couple of interesting tidbits on the Bobcats).
1. The opportunities are going to dry up. The Bobcats are grabbing 46.5 rebounds per game, the second most in the league. Their opponents are still getting 39.7, which is the 7th highest total. That is a lot of misses, especially considering just how slow the Bobcats play. The Bobcats are currently shooting 38.6% from the field as a team. That number will rise and some offensive rebounds will evaporate - if they shoot 44% from the field, 80 field goal attempts suddenly yields 4 fewer potential offensive rebounds. They are holding opponents to 44%, which should rise a little as well (last season, they allowed 45%) - a couple of fewer defensive rebounds to grab.
2. The minutes are going to go down. Gerald is currently averaging 42 minutes per game - that cannot last with the way he plays, it will be too much on his body. Last year, he was just under 38 minutes per game - a 10% drop in minutes from his current level. Fewer minutes, fewer rebounds.
3. The rate does not match up with the results. A combination of the previous 2 points, but Gerald's current combined rebound rate is 18.8%, good for just 16th among players over 50 minutes played. Yes, right now Gerald is averaging more rebounds per game than Dwight Howard...but Howard has a combined rebound rate of 22.1% - as Gerald's minutes and opportunities drop back down to normal numbers, he is going to drop down the rebounding leaders.
That rate is going to drop. Gerald's current rate is about 1.5 times better than his previous career best, so it is going to drop - he may set a new career mark, but not this far out of line with his previous work.
Gerald - prove me wrong.
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| Shoals Says: | Right, I noted that those opportunities weren't going to be there for much longer. I liked to dream, though. | ||
| Wed Nov 11, 2009 4:13 pm |
