10/01/2007
If all you judge Primoz by is the difference between PER of he and whoever he was guarding, then he held his own over the first 2 years and only struggled last year. But since basketball is a team game (which I somehow overlooked in my defense), this does not tell the whole story. How did the team fare with Primoz on and off the court over the last few years? Not good, not good at all.
With Primoz on the floor, the Bobcats were about a 10 win team - in any season. Looking only at Primoz's numbers (as PER basically does - for a good explanation of the rating, click here) caused me to miss how the team actually did with him on the court. How is this possible though? It would seem to be obvious for last year - Primoz played poorly, so when he was on the floor the team struggled. But what can last year tell us about his other seasons, that might explain the discrepancy between his personal solid numbers and the team's dismal ones. Here are a few things I found:
While the team did rebound slightly better and turn the ball over a little less with Primoz on the floor, that was far from enough to offset two main disadvantages - Opponents shooting nearly 2% better from the floor and the Bobcats forcing far fewer turnovers. Over the course of a game, that 2% shooting difference accounts for more than another make from the field (2 points), and the turnover difference gives the opponents an extra possession (assuming an offensive efficiency of 1.0, which is slightly low, that is another point). I could go further and get into the huge difference between free throw rates with Primoz on and off the court, but I think I have said enough for now. I would like to say I have learned my lesson and that I will not post thoughts spontaneously without fully researching them going forward...I would like to say that, but I would be lying - isn't the whole point of blogging to react?
Thoughts? Comments? Click here, and make them known.
If blogging were like playing golf, I would say that I was taking a mulligan. However, it is not, so I am just left to say I was wrong. For those who know me, they'll be shocked, as this is not something I willingly do often. But, I have no choice at this time. And what was I wrong about (If you could not guess from the title)? I was wrong to defend Primoz as vehemently as I did. What changed my mind? Let's look at the numbers, starting with what deceived me.
| Primoz and His Opposition - Measured by PER | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Primoz's PER | Opp PER | Net PER | |
| 2004-05 | 17.3 | 15.9 | +1.4 |
| 2005-06 | 16.2 | 17.0 | -0.8 |
| 2006-07 | 10.5 | 20.0 | -9.6 |
If all you judge Primoz by is the difference between PER of he and whoever he was guarding, then he held his own over the first 2 years and only struggled last year. But since basketball is a team game (which I somehow overlooked in my defense), this does not tell the whole story. How did the team fare with Primoz on and off the court over the last few years? Not good, not good at all.
| The Bobcats - With and Without Primoz | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| With Primoz | Without | Net +/- | |
| 2004-05 | -8.3 | -4.3 | -4.0 |
| 2005-06 | -8.8 | +0.9 | -9.8 |
| 2006-07 | -7.8 | -2.9 | -5.0 |
With Primoz on the floor, the Bobcats were about a 10 win team - in any season. Looking only at Primoz's numbers (as PER basically does - for a good explanation of the rating, click here) caused me to miss how the team actually did with him on the court. How is this possible though? It would seem to be obvious for last year - Primoz played poorly, so when he was on the floor the team struggled. But what can last year tell us about his other seasons, that might explain the discrepancy between his personal solid numbers and the team's dismal ones. Here are a few things I found:
| The Bobcats of 2006-07 - With and Without Primoz | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| With Primoz | Without | Net Change | |
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.6% | -0.2% |
| Opp FG% | 48.1% | 46.2% | -1.9% |
| Def Rebound Rate | 71.7% | 68.1% | +3.6% |
| Off Rebound Rate | 31.0% | 29.0% | +2.0% |
| Turnover Rate | 13.9% | 14.0% | +0.1% |
| Opp Turnover Rate | 13.6% | 14.9% | -1.3% |
While the team did rebound slightly better and turn the ball over a little less with Primoz on the floor, that was far from enough to offset two main disadvantages - Opponents shooting nearly 2% better from the floor and the Bobcats forcing far fewer turnovers. Over the course of a game, that 2% shooting difference accounts for more than another make from the field (2 points), and the turnover difference gives the opponents an extra possession (assuming an offensive efficiency of 1.0, which is slightly low, that is another point). I could go further and get into the huge difference between free throw rates with Primoz on and off the court, but I think I have said enough for now. I would like to say I have learned my lesson and that I will not post thoughts spontaneously without fully researching them going forward...I would like to say that, but I would be lying - isn't the whole point of blogging to react?
Thoughts? Comments? Click here, and make them known.
| Ryan Schwan Says: | I had Brezec on my fantasy team his first year in Charlotte, and he helped me win that year. I'm a little surprised he actually helped the team rebound though, his rebounding percentage has always been underwhelming. | ||
| Tue Oct 02, 2007 2:03 pm |
