The Bobcats: Player Efficiency Breakdown

08/18/2007

Certain players seemed to show up more in good lineups, and others seemed to show up more in bad ones. But who really was an anchor for the team (in both the positive and negative connotations of the word)?

Reminder: the total number of points and possessions is off by the totals from one game, as ESPN did not have a play by play for the Bobcats game against New Orleans on November 14th.

Player Name	Team Points	Team Poss	Opp Points	Opp Poss	Time	Offensive Eff	Defensive Eff	Adjusted +/-
Charlotte Bobcats	7854	7587	8141	7633	4068:00	1.0352	1.0666	-0.0314
Our basis for comparison: Did a player improve on what was average for the team, or does he drag the average down?
Adam Morrison	4494	4388	4797	4425	2316:52	1.0242	1.0841	-0.0599
Anyone who paid attention last year saw this coming (so the people who voted for Rookie of the Year didn't). Ammo struggled all season on both ends of the floor, eventually enough so that he saw severely reduced minutes near the end of the season. While I do expect him to bounce back to a degree (I think he's a better shooter than his 37.6% mark from last season), I also think that Bobcats fans need to change our expectations for him.
Alan Anderson	488	488	496	486	250:39	1.0000	1.0206	-0.0206
Ugly offensively, but a pretty solid defensive number give AA a better than expected adjusted +/-. I don't expect to see him back with the Bobcats this year, considering there are currently 13 guys under contract, and only 1 point guard on the roster.
Bernard Robinson	394	422	438	426	227:04	0.9336	1.0282	-0.0945
I'm still not sure what New Jersey saw in him, but I'm glad they took him off our hands.
Brevin Knight	2458	2400	2529	2433	1269:51	1.0242	1.0395	-0.0153
Seeing these numbers makes me continue to shake my head about cutting Brevin loose. I know that injuries kept him out too often, and I've read that there may have been issues about playing time, but if the Bobcats wanted to win, shouldn't they have kept the second most efficient point guard on the roster?
Derek Anderson	2414	2263	2396	2263	1222:59	1.0667	1.0588	0.0080
At least they still have an opportunity to retain the most productive one: Yes, it was Derek Anderson, not Raymond Felton (but anyone who had read the lineup efficiency posts would have suspected this). The offense performed better with him on the floor than all but two other players, and he's also one of only 3 players who played significant minutes for the team to have a positive adjusted +/-. MJ/Bernie, if you're reading this (and you should be), call Derek's agent now: He's probably awake.
Emeka Okafor	4449	4344	4543	4353	2355:40	1.0242	1.0436	-0.0195
The foundation of the team. I've already noted how important Emeka is to the Bobcats, but it is important to not take him for granted. Considering the number of minutes he was on the floor for a losing team, it is no surprise that he is a net negative overall. But to focus on that is to miss his importance: His adjusted +/- is about half of the team average, so that just further underscores how bad it is must have been when he was off the court. I am looking forward to hearing the news when the Bobcats announce his contract extension, because he is a franchise caliber player (and you don't have to take my word, check it out courtesy of Bobcats Den).
Eric Williams	65	57	67	61	32:54	1.1404	1.0984	0.0420
Eric was actually an asset in his brief time on the floor for the Bobcats. But that was a fluke, as his personal numbers were atrocious with the Cats this season. Moving on...
Gerald Wallace	5181	5026	5402	5058	2687:47	1.0308	1.0680	-0.0372
Don't be fooled by Gerald's numbers: They would be much different if I only ran it for the second half of the season, when he was healthy after his nasty fall in the first week of the season. Just one number to chew on in regards to this: 16 points per game pre-All Star break and 21.7 post. Contract push or not, a healthy Crash is a very valuable player.
Jake Voskuhl	2095	2005	2230	2026	1053:12	1.0449	1.1007	-0.0558
While the offense was a bit better when Jake was on the floor, the defense was also significantly worse. He was a serviceable backup big though, and depth in the post is still a concern, with untested depth in Ryan Hollins and Jermareo Davidson for the coming season.
Jeff McInnis	1375	1333	1459	1353	702:23	1.0315	1.0783	-0.0468
The worst of the 4 pgs on the Bobcats roster last season, but unfortunately the one I am hearing the most rumors of coming back to the team (aside from Raymond). Status quo for the team offensively, but a downgrade defensively overall, and another year older. I would really like to do this column next year and not need to point back to this and say "I told you so".
Matt Carroll	3773	3584	3886	3578	1949:38	1.0527	1.0861	-0.0333
No big surprises for the Bobcats' best shooter: The team performed better offensively with him on the floor (shocking that a basketball team would score better with someone who can shoot on the court), but also a little worse than average defensively. However, the two balance out and he comes close to breaking even as far as adjusted +/- go. With a slightly reduced role next year, I could see him actually improving on that, as the Coach Vincent will be more able to pick the spots to use the sharp shooter.
Melvin Ely	438	476	504	480	237:47	0.9202	1.0500	-0.1298
Good news Bobcats fans: There will not be a pre-season article this year talking about how improved Melvin looks (well, actually, there may be, but we won't have to read it, and then be disappointed by the same old Ely). And what is that same old Ely? More hype than production as evidenced by his brutal numbers last year.
Othella Harrington	393	429	426	419	220:17	0.9161	1.0167	-0.1006
And another of the players who did such a good job of skewing the numbers downward: Hopefully the youngsters are ready to contribute because Othella doesn't have much left to give.
Primoz Brezec	1632	1599	1721	1604	845:52	1.0206	1.0729	-0.0523
For all the Primoz bashing I've read, his adjusted +/- is not as bad as you might expect. I expect a bounce back to the player he was in his first two seasons as a Bobcat (thanks Basketball-Reference) when he was a solid starting center: Remember, he will only be 28 this coming year, which is just entering his prime.
Raymond Felton	5624	5376	5740	5401	2880:00	1.0461	1.0628	-0.0166
Raymond was an upgrade for the team at both ends of the floor, and therefore, a bit better than average overall. Like Emeka, he played so many minutes, he was bound to have a negative adjusted +/-, by virtue of playing for a losing team. But also like Emeka, he was a big part of pulling the Bobcats another couple of steps closer to respectability. With another offensive weapon available this season (Richardson), I hope to see Felton's shooting percentage increase as he feels less need to score for the team and takes better shots. His taking the next step in his maturation as a point guard is a key to the Bobcats coming season.
Ryan Hollins	350	363	439	360	185:09	0.9642	1.2194	-0.2553
For everyone who thinks Ryan is going to be ready to play consistent minutes in the League this year, just look at these numbers. There was a reason he spent a chunk of last year in the D-League.
Sean May	1660	1544	1667	1556	816:12	1.0751	1.0713	0.0038
One of the major factors in just how much of a step forward the Bobcats take this year: Sean May. The former lottery pick is worthy of his high selection...when he plays. If he can do that just a bit more this coming year for the Bobcats, his obvious offensive skills will make quite a difference for this team.
Walter Herrmann	1902	1778	1900	1828	965:44	1.0697	1.0394	0.0304
The man I would have voted for as Rookie of the Year for the Bobcats last season. Walter (he doesn't really look like a Walter to me, but whatever) provided the Bobcats in the second half of the season with what they expected to get from Morrison. A player who scores from all over the floor, and does not do much any where else. Actually, that's not fair to say, considering the defensive efficiency of the team when he was on the floor.

I have to admit that there were some real surprises in this for me, with the biggest being:
1. Walter Herrmann: I had no idea he was going to be the Bobcat's most efficient overall player. In hindsight, it makes sense, because as he started playing more in the second half of the season, the team was winning more games, but it still comes as a surprise. Let's just hope he has some more of it in him for the coming year.
2. Gerald Wallace: I really expected Crash's overall numbers to be better than they were, but again, the injury explains a lot of the difference between expectations and reality. Assuming no major injuries in the coming year, I would expect his numbers to look much different a year from now.
3. The PG's: Does it concern anyone else that the Bobcats are trying to bring back the two lowest performers of the point guards for the coming season? I actually expect continued improvement from Raymond and have no complaint about the team being in his hands. But the more information I look at from last year, and the trio of Brevin, Jeff, and Derek, the more puzzled I am by the Bobcats decision on this one.

What surprised you about the player review? Weigh in.
Related Material:
See the postive adjusted +/- lineups here
See the negative adjusted +/- lineups here

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