Bobcats Preseason 08-09, Offense Reviewed
10/25/2008There was a stretch last season when the Boston Celtics seemed capable of setting an all-time league best mark for Defensive Efficiency. They let up a bit as the season went on, resting their legs for the playoffs, and wound up merely being among the best of all-time. Well, judging from this preseason, history could be within these Bobcats' grasp...
As the worst offensive team in history (at least relative to their competition - the game has changed a lot over the years). With a quick skim of Basketball-Reference, I found two competitors: The NY Nets of 76-77 at 92.2 (but the league as a whole had a lower efficiency) and the 98-99 Bulls at 92.4 points per 100 possessions. Luckily for the Bobcats, it was only the preseason, but they "bettered" both of those marks: 91.5 points scored per 100 possessions. Yes, really. Last season, when the Cats scored at a rate of 104.6, it was good enough for the bottom third of the league, with Seattle/Miami tying for worst at 100.5. Will history be made in Charlotte?
No, I do not really expect it. But I did want to point out just how atrocious the offense had been during this precursor to the regular season (I was tired of saying preseason). Now, let us take a look at some of the causes and reasons to expect it to improve.
First up: The new coach. Changing coaches and styles for the second consecutive off-season can have a negative impact on the players' comfort level with and effectiveness in the offensive system. Larry Brown has put an emphasis on driving and drawing fouls, as opposed to bombing away from outside. After increasing from 15.6 3-point attempts in 06-07 to 17.6 last year, that number dropped to 13.6 this preseason. One issue with that is the Bobcats are actually a pretty solid 3-point shooting team (37% last season, 12th in the league), so they are struggling to adjust their offense to the coach's preferred style.
Another issue: A cold streak. One of the biggest issues with the Bobcats offense this preseason has been the extended cold streak of their shooters. They have not been able to make a jumper with any consistency - watching them play the Lakers, it was frustrating to see how many wide open jumpers just clanged off the rim. Did the team forget how to shoot? Probably not, but if you look at the table below, you can see that the rim was particularly unkind to Felton, Augustin, Carroll, Wallace, and Richardson.
So, with all their jumpers bricking this pre-season, the same core group of Bobcats that shot 37% on 3s last year, dropped to 29% this preseason. Though it may be partly mental, as they wonder if they are taking a shot the coach wants, it is reasonable to expect some bounce back on this part of their games. Were they to make 3s at the rate they did last year, it would add another 3 points a game to their total, moving their efficiency to 94.6. Not great, but a big jump from just a jumper more a game going down.
Besides missing shots, the Bobcats are spending too many possessions not even taking a shot. 19.8 turnovers per game in the preseason for the Bobcats. That is about 5 more times per game coughing up the ball than last season. With a more aggressive offense, more turnovers should be expected...but not this many. Unfortunately, the team showed little improvement over the preseason with regards to giveaways, as the last game with the Lakers had 24 turnovers, including 11 in the second quarter, highlighted by a stretch of 4 straight possessions ending in a turnover. The announcers partially blamed the sloppy play on it being near the end of the preseason and guys not really caring. Not really encouraging.
Either Sean May will play better or he will not play as much - at least I hope that is the case. With Sean on the court, and contributing next to nothing - 12.3 points per 40 minutes on 33% shooting and 6.3 rebounds per 40 minutes - the offense stalled...and got hit by a semi. 81.3 points per 100 possessions with Sean on the court. That is not good, at all, in any way. And judging by the reduced minutes for May in the last 2 preseason games, Larry Brown may have decided that Sean is going to be sitting more than playing in the early going, rather than playing his way into game shape when the games count.
The last reason to give hope: Selective amnesia. If you only look at certain games for the Bobcats, the offense looks better. When running the numbers while excluding the first 2 games of the preseason and the last one where they imploded against the Lakers, the offense scored at a rate of 98.5 points per 100 possessions. Not great, but not historically bad either. Enough to give hope for the regular season? Not on in its, perhaps, but when considered along with the other factors mentioned above, it does seem to early to give up on the Bobcats offense all together.
This concludes the review of the Bobcats offense in the preseason. A post on the defense will be forthcoming soon (meaning sometime before their first game on Thursday - it is almost here).
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