The SGs and the Offense of the Charlotte Bobcats...Again

01/16/2008

Part 1 of this look at the Bobcats' Shooting Guards

For this blog, 3 comments on a post is considered vigorous discourse, upon which I feel compelled to comment. Enough points were raised that I felt the best way to respond would be with another post on the topic. So, if you're sick of looking at numbers for J-Rich and Hammer, you should probably skip the rest of this (though, if you are sick of it, I am surprised you are on this site to begin with - it does not get much better than this).

First up - JonnJonzz points out that I am lacking consistency: On the 10th of January, I wrote "Since the start of December, the numbers get crazy: The offensive number with J-Rich is 104.3, and without 89.3. Seems like the adjustment period is over" and followed that up just 3 days later with "Right now, he looks a bit like a shirt you bought and tore the tags off too quickly, before realizing you did not get quite what you thought you had, but it was too late to do anything about". So, he asks "which is it, my man?" To which, I reply...both. The offense has turned capable over the last few weeks with Jason on the floor, which is a sharp improvement from the early season where it was markedly worse with him. But...even over that good period for him, the number is below Matt's season number (104.5 to 105.8, after the last 2 games). So, yes, the offense has been better with Jason lately (compared to earlier in the season), but overall, the offense is running better with Matt, who costs far less.

David (of Rufus on Fire fame) theorized that Matt's numbers looked better than Jason's because Matt probably spent less time on the floor with Jeff McInnis, who, if added to the Patriots, would probably even hurt that potent offense. And I thought that was a great suggestion - made sense and it certainly seemed logical that the Bobcats would rarely pair Matt (ostensibly a weaker offensive performer) with Jeff (a known weak offensive performer). But, to my (and I would assume David's) chagrin, the Bobcats actually play Carroll more with McInnis than Jason Richardson is stuck with Jazzy Jeff: Matt spends a full 24.2% of his time on the court with McInnis, while that number is only 20.9% for J-Rich. So much for Jeff McInnis holding back Jason Richardson from turning the Bobcats into an offensive juggernaut. Next.

Charlie White makes some points with which I cannot argue: Jason does have more experience, including playoff experience. He is expected to play a more central role to the team than Matt. But the last part does not work: Jason Richardson is not the type of player who forces opponents into foul trouble. Matt Carroll actually attempts more free throws per field goal attempt than Jason does: .193 to .187. However, their career numbers better illustrate who creates fouls on the opponent: .326 and .238 (the bigger number goes with the guy getting paid half as much).

With those comments/questions/observations responded to, other thoughts about their respective contributions came to mind...and both attempt to better explain why the offense has performed better with Matt on the court than Jason.
1. Matt shoots less: Why would that be considered a positive for the offense? Well, since Matt and Jason Richardson's points per shot numbers are practically identical (at 1.19 for both now), the fact that Matt takes fewer shots gives more chances for his teammates to shoot...who almost all happen to be doing more with each shot they take. Gerald, Emeka, and Nazr score 1.38, 1.30, and 1.29 points per shot attempt - so, getting them more shots over a player who scores less per shot seems like one of the first ways to ramp up the offense. Raymond is right behind Matt/Jason at 1.17, so if the team could pry a couple of more attempts away from him a night, that would help also.
2. Matt keeps the ball more: From the other team, that is. His turnover rate is 1.3 turnovers per 100 team possessions, while the number for Jason is twice that, at 2.6. Again, not wanting to take things too simplistically, but this logically helps the team score more points. A possession with a turnover gives the team no chance to score - an extra turnover a night accounts for approximately 1 point less per 100 possessions (since a point per possession is close to the average for an NBA team).

So, there are so more of my thoughts on the shooting guards and their values to the team. I hope that the conversation continues and we can all learn a bit more about the team from it.
Part 1 of this look at the Bobcats' Shooting Guards
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