What if...

08/05/2007

What if...Emeka Okafor had not gotten hurt this past season? With everyone making predictions for next year, of an improved team for the Bobcats, with playoff aspirations, it got me thinking about this past season. In particular, I was fixated on a number: -3.7, as in the Bobcats average point differential. That number was tied for 5th worst in the league last year, but the team wound up with only tying for the 8th worst record, so either they were better than their average score indicated, or worse than their record would indicate.

And that's what brings me back to Emeka's injury. He missed 15 games this season, and the Bobcats went 4-11 in those games, a 27% winning percentage, which comes out to a season of only 22 wins. The rest of the season, the team was 29-38, a 43% winning percentage, which would translate to 35 wins. While 35 wins still would have found them on the golf course for the playoffs, it also would have been a couple of steps closer.

Now, I want to go back to that scoring margin: How much of an impact did Emaka's absence have on it? Well, in the 15 games he missed, the Bobcats were outscored by 108 points, an average of -7.2 per game, which would have been the worst in the NBA by over 2 points a game. The rest of the season, the Bobcats were outscored by 199 points, an average of -3 points per games. That number would put them into the rankings about where their overall record would predict.

Put it all together and what does all this mean? Well, the Bobcats scoring margin was inflated by a couple of blowouts when Emeka was out with an injury. Removing those numbers, their point differential and record match up fairly well, but still leave them short of being a playoff team. However, it does make me feel better about next season, because, barring injury, they were a slightly better team than they showed this year, and that speaks well for their potential for this season (as long as the Bobcats keep Okafor, Gerald, and Sean May in bubble wrap between games).

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