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09/08/2007 Something I read recently over at Wages of Wins, about Rashard Lewis and how his value is much less as a power forward, made me think about Gerald Wallace. Specifically, are we overvaluing his contributions to the team? What do I mean? Well, part of the reason Crash is well regarded is due to his high rebound numbers for a small forward - he averaged 7.2 rpg last season and 9.4 rebounds per 48 mins. But what position did he do that at? If he put those numbers up at small forward, that is much more impressive than if he did so at power forward, where those numbers would be well below average (a chart from that same article of Berri's - 7.6 rebounds per 48 mins is average for a 3, but 11.4 is average for a 4).
It's clear that playing at power forward was beneficial to Crash's numbers (I think he should take Sean May out to lunch for missing so much time and giving him a chance to score his fat new contract...as long as Gerald only lets him order a salad or something). In fact, something of an oddity shows itself in these numbers: Gerald was a below average rebounder for a small forward, but a slightly above average rebounder at the 4. I won't hypothesize a poorly thought out guess about the cause of that at this point, I'll give it some thought and either update this post later or do a separate post on it. Looking at these numbers though: Crash was about average as a small forward, but a dominant player at the power forward spot. But was it in the best interest of the team to run Gerald out there as a 6'7" power forward almost half of the time he was on the court? Actually, it was, as seen below.
So, the team was better with Gerald at power forward than small forward this past season. My first thought? That speaks more to the depth of the club than anything else. Emeka Okafor, Sean May, and Walter Herrmann are the only "bigs" the Bobcats had last season that were competent and would play meaningful minutes on a better club. Walter did not play until late in the year and Sean only played sporadically due to injuries. So for most of the year, the clubs options looked like this: Emeka at either center or power forward, and then choose one of the following to fill out a traditional lineup: Othella Harrington, Jake Voskuhl, Primoz Brezec, Melvin Ely, and Ryan Hollins. Or they could go small with Emeka at center, Gerald at the 4. The choice was easy: Crash in a landslide, as evidenced by his spending almost half of the season as the de facto power forward. My second thought? So, the Bobcats were better with Crash as a power forward...last year. But how good can they be with him there? That's not a question that my numbers can answer. Can they be a playoff team with a 6'7" power forward? Or do they need Sean May to be healthy and capitalize on the potential he's shown? Something to chew on: When Gerald was playing in a lineup that included both Emeka and Sean or Emeka and Walter, the team had an adjusted +/- of 0.0127, in nearly 10 games worth of minutes together. Spectacular? No, but that translates to an average margin of victory 1.1 points per game, which is comparable to what Toronto did last year on their way to 47 victories. Conclusion: I'm glad for Gerald that he put up the big numbers last year, and was rewarded with the new contract. But, I think for the best interest of the team, we have to hope that Gerald plays more minutes this year at the 3, even if it means lower numbers for him, with Sean May and Walter Herrmann splitting the majority of the time at the 4. Raymond Felton, Jason Richardson, Crash, Sean/Walter, and Emeka: That looks like a playoff squad from here. To comment on/view comments for this post, click here. 
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