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12/21/2007 What is an MVP? Tough question to answer (though I should be able to pass along a link in the next few days that takes a shot at answering it). My thought - Wins is a good place to start. How about a "Wins +/-"? But not the actual number of wins when a player was playing or out - I decided to look at the expected number of wins for the team, based on the efficiences of the team, with the player on and off the court. The formula is relatively simple: Expected Wins = 82 * (Offensive Efficiency ^16.5/(Offensive Efficiency ^16.5 + Defensive Efficiency ^16.5)Now, this does not account for just how much of an impact the player had while on the court - or even how much they were on the court (which would seem to have value as well), but it is a start. With that said, here are numbers for your Charlotte Bobcats:
Am I suggesting that Matt Carroll is the team MVP? Actually, I would probably go with Raymond, because he has played so many more minutes than Matt so far, but it is close when you look at things in this light. The biggest surprise has to be where Emeka sits on the list - off hand, I do not know how to explain the team being better off without him, at this point in the season. It does not change my opinion though: Emeka Okafor is the cornerstone of the team, whether the numbers show it at this time or not. A couple of other thoughts, and then I am gone: -Nice to see that the 2 Bobcats who were just traded were also the 2 "Least Valuable Players" on the team, as far as expected wins are concerned. Now, if we could just get rid of the next 2 at the bottom of the list... -I did not include Nazr Mohhamed in the table, because he has not even played a game's worth of minutes in Charlotte. But if I had included him, he would have been second, with a +32: With Nazr on the floor, the Cats are playing at a 54 win pace and without, 22. That number will not last (adding him did not make this an elite team), but it is an encouraging early sign. -I will try to incorporate this into the Stats Page. I am also working on a new way of calculating the offensive and defensive efficiencies faced - the old way was too taxing on the server, taking multiple page refreshes to complete for a single player. Click here to comment/view comments for this post.
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