Why Statistics?

08/10/2007

A couple of days ago, I was going through the forums at Bobcats Planet, and one topic I stopped at was expectations for the coming season. I put in my two cents and linked back to my article about Emeka's injuries this past season, and the effect that had on the team. I wanted to remind people that there are reasons to be concerned about this team, mainly it's seeming fragility. As it was among my first couple of posts to the board, one of the other members welcomed me and mentioned that he had seen my blog. What he said next continues to confuse me: "[B]ut i'm always skeptical about stats..." In one breath he had complimented the work I am doing, but in the next was totally dismissive of it. It's an attitude that I just don't understand.
Your eyes can deceive you; just check out the video clips David Thorpe has put together for espn.com about some of the borderline cheating moves used by basketball players. The speed of the game can make it tough to follow the ball, let alone everything the other 8 players are doing away from it. When you watch the game, your interpretation of the play is influenced by your biases, for certain players, teams, refs, etc. Numbers are facts, there is no subjectivity with them: 1 is always 1. That consistency can be a useful tool in looking at the sport we follow.

In basketball, offensive is fairly well tracked: You take "x" shots, make "y" of them, and score "z" points. You can do the same with rebounds, blocks, assists, steals, and other categories as well. They are easily quantified and paint a general picture of a player's impact; however, because these are so easy to measure and other things aren't, for the most part, player ability is judged on mainly these skills. Defense is much more difficult to assign a number to: A player can play 23 (or 24 seconds) of good defense, and contest the shot that goes up, but have his man make very difficult attempts. Does that mean he played poor defense? No, just as when a player misses a wide open look after shaking his defender does not mean the defender played good defense. But those are the easily identified edges of the spectrum and on a play by play basis, what is good defense versus what is bad offense becomes much more difficult to recognize.

Numbers help. A single game can be misleading, but over the course of a season, trends emerge that can not be denied. A particular player is on the court and the team plays better offensively, but struggles a bit defensively: OVer the course of 82 games, judgements can be made on those findings. The numbers can help find the cause of shortcomings (and strengths) as well. Are they just a poor defender who gives up easy looks? Or maybe the offense is able to grab significantly more offensive rebounds when they are on the court, leading to more opportunities to score. If you know that when a certain group of players is on the court, they usually struggle on the boards, but tonight they are more than holding their, or even beasting it, you have to feel better about the game you are watching and the chance your team has to win.

Watching basketball can be as simple as watching the man with the ball all the time. But it can be more than that if you want it to be. Stats provide another prism through which to view the game, and that view can be a far more rewarding one. The statistics view is the one I am partial to and I intend to do my part to provide you with new ideas to consider as this coming season begins. In the next couple of days, I will be releasing a full breakdown of every lineup that played significant minutes last season, and focusing on the strengths and weaknesses of each. It might cause you to take a new look at what you think you know about the Bobcats.

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