Bobcats vs. Mavs Preview

11/18/2008

Opponent: Dallas Mavericks (3-7)
Efficiencies:
  Offensive: 103.7
  Defensive: 105.5
Net: -1.8

Do not let the Mavericks' record fool you - they are better than they have shown. That can be seen to a degree in their efficiencies: A -1.8 does not matchup with a .300 Winning Percentage. On the flip side of that coin, the Bobcats' mark of -5.2 actually shows that they have been lucky to go through 3-6 so far. Enough on that though, here are some things to watch for:
Who wins the turnover battle? Dallas is strong with the ball, turning it over on only 12.3% of their possessions. Unfortunately for them, they still give more often than they receive, as they have only forced their opponents into turnovers on 11.3% of poss (the heart-warming motto of "it is more blessed to give than to receive" does not apply to basketball). The Bobcats also cough it up more often than they grab it back, but the margin is smaller, at 15.2% gives to 14.9% takes. Charlotte has played a more reckless style offensively and defensively, while the Mavericks have been more conservative: Which style will the game tonight lean towards?
Who guards Dirk?With Erick Dampier in the post, we will see more Nazr tonight, I expect. The question will be how well Emeka/Nazr/Sean/Gerald/Ajinca? can handle Nowitzki. Hedo Turkoglu proved a very difficult cover for the Cats against Orlando, and Dirk is, well, just better (in fact, if Alexis fancies himself a perimeter based big man, I hope he has a notepad with him on the bench tonight for learning from Dirk). The Bobcats best hope is probably the lucky break they caught against Orlando - get the man in trouble. So whoever Dirk guards, make him work, please.
Will Kidd be Jason or Ason tonight?It will take some pressure off the Bobcats's smallish points if this is not one of those random nights when Kidd can actually shoot.

Final note: I will be at this one in person. If you're there and see someone wearing a QueenCityHoops t-shirt, come up and say hi (do not worry, it will be me - this tee is still one of a kind (Shameless plug - visit the Store, linked at the top)).

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How's Ammo Doing?

11/17/2008

Brett (Charlotte, NC): How has Adam Morrison looked to you? He seems to be flourishing (relatively speaking) as a scorer off the bench, where he can guard the opponent's backups. Did people write him off too soon?
John Hollinger: (3:51 PM ET ) He's played like a reasonable NBA backup so far, and his shooting has been a helpful skill on this roster. I doubt he'll ever justify being the third pick, but if he keeps this up he's at least useful.
That exchange seems as good a place to start as any: 9 games into his comeback from a major knee surgery (as well as a (hyperbole) catastrophic rookie campaign), how is Adam Morrison doing? Considering that by Hollinger's metric, PER, Morrison was the worst player in the league receiving extended minutes his rookie year, these first 9 games have to be considered a raging success. Before we can get too excited about this reversal of fortune, it may be prudent to dig a bit deeper.

Let us start by considering PER once again: In Adam's rookie year, he had a mark of 7.91...and league average is 15. According to Hollinger, an increase of 1 in per roughly equates to a win more for your team, over 2000 minutes. Put that together with 2326 minutes played by Ammo that season, and he was worth about 8.5 losses for the Bobcats, relative to an "average" player. The good news: So far this season, Morrison has a PER of 14.31 - nearly average, but a world of improvement from his rookie year, presumably leading Hollinger to call him "a reasonable NBA backup".

How about by another all-encompassing measure, WP48 (Wins Produced per 48 minutes)? I do not have the actual formula, but Dave Berri of the Wages of Wins Journal was good enough to offer an approximation of the formula:
WP48 = 0.104 + 1.621*PAWSmin (approximation)
Win Score = PTS + REB + STL + .5*BLK + .5*AST – FGA - .5*FTA – TO - .5*PF
PAWSmin = Win Score/time - (position average)
With Morrison playing most of his minutes as a small forward, the position average used is 0.152 (Rebounding is a significant component of WS, and as such, the bigger the guy, the higher the average WS). Once you plug in all the numbers, Adam comes out to a 0.009. Average is 0.1. Adam is decidedly below average, though he is again well ahead of his rookie number (-0.134). We again see Adam having made large strides, but still coming up a bit short of being even average.

Now I want to look at the components of those scores: In Adam's rookie year, he did one thing, shoot. He did not do it effectively though, with a TS% of only 45.0%. He had a rebound rate of 5.8% and an assist rate of 12.4%. While his assists have only gone up slightly, 12.8 assist rate this year, he has made marked improvements in the other two fields. Morrison's true shooting % is up to 56%, a very solid mark. Even better, to me, is that his rebound rate is up to 6.5, a greater than 10% improvement. To me, that shows hustle and a commitment to playing a more complete game. Is it my imagination though?

That is what Ziggy and I discussed earlier today: Were we seeing improvements in Adam's defense because he was making an effort - or because we were making an effort to see an improvement that was not there? The answer - well, it is tough to say, but I am going to give it a tentative yes. For the season, the Bobcat' defensive efficiency is at 107.0 with Adam on the court, 108.0 with him off it. But it is not so simple - who is he shutting down, the starters, the bench, the scrubs? So, I calculated the degree of difficulty faced by every player. Charlotte as a team has faced a cumulative opponent with efficiencies of 106.6 offensive, 105.0 defensive - solid, somewhere between Indiana and Chicago in difficulty. Adam, however, has faced a 101.6/108.6 opponent - like going against Sacramento every night. Summing it up:
The Bobcats's defensive numbers are better with Ammo on the court.
But Adam has played against weaker offenses.
Conclusion - still an improvement from his rookie year, when the team was a 109.7 defensively with him, a 107.6 without.

Unfortunately, I was not able to reach a definite conclusion about Adam's defense from these numbers. But, I can say that he has improved to the point that he is no longer a hindrance to the team. I will not go so far as to say that he has been a revelation, but he has shown improvement and looks to be a contributor now.

Final point: While the Bobcats have faced an opponent with a net efficiency of 1.6, they are at -5.2 as a team. Between the 2 numbers, call it a partially adjusted net efficiency of -3.6 With Adam, it is +3.3 net efficiency, degree of difficulty -7 = partially adjusted net efficiency of -3.7. It is a start for Adam and the Bobcats - so, between that and the haircut, I have no complaints about Ammo right now. Continued improvement and an awkward yet effective offensive game are all I ask.

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Bobcats vs. Magic Recap

11/17/2008

Detailed boxscore: Boxscore Page

Score: 90-85 Magic
Bobcats Record: 3-6
Efficiencies:
  Offensive: 97.7
  Defensive: 105.9
Meritorious Player: Gerald Wallace. 19 points on 14 attempts. 9 rebounds. 1 assist. 1 steal. But - the Bobcats were outscored by 10 with Gerald on the court, with a net efficiency of -16.2.

Links:
Rick Bonnell's Recap of the game - I cannot phrase it any better than his opening:

So if somebody told you Orlando Magic center Dwight Howard didn't score a single basket and played less than eight minutes of the second half, you'd like the Charlotte Bobcats' chances, right?
How did the Bobcats squander this golden opportunity at a quality win? Well, Dwight Howard was not the only player in foul trouble. Emeka joined him, with 5 fouls in less than 23 minutes of action. Matt Carroll had 4 in 24 minutes, and Nazr 4 in just 14 minutes. While the Bobcats only committed 3 more fouls than the Magic - the free throw line was not as kind. The Bobcats actually took 3 more attempts than the Magic (27-24), but missed one more (18 makes to 19). And when free throw are not going down, who can we expect?

Emeka Okafor was the main culprit, going just 2 of 6 at the line. Aside from that and the 5 fouls (some sarcasm intended), Emeka had a solid game in his limited minutes: 8 points (on 5 attempts, and the aforementioned 6 free throw attempts), 9 rebounds, and a block. Seeing that, it is clear that Okafor did not do enough damage (in fact contributing a good deal) to grab defeat by himself. Some other contributors were:
Raymond Felton: 5 of 14 from the floor for only 14 points countered his solid 6 assists to 2 turnovers.
Adam Morrison: More good and bad - 14 points on just 10 field goal attempts, but 4 turnovers in just under 22 minutes.
Matt Carroll: 3 rebounds from the SG do not negate just 6 points on 7 attempts.
Sean May: 3 rebounds in 12 minutes, but 5 attempts to get 4 points plus 2 turnovers in his limited time.

Enough piling on, here are a couple of positives to take away:
Solid board work, as the Bobcats held the Magic to 12 offensive rebounds (including team boards), while grabbing 15 offensive rebounds of their own.
Decent defense: While Bonnell points out that the loss came down to not being able to stop Hedo Turkoglu in the 4th, the Bobcats defense overall gave a good effort. I already mentioned the low number of offensive rebounds, but they also held the Magic to 43.8% shooting.

Looking at the stats and the efficiencies against each player (specifically the difference between Adam Morrison and Matt Carroll) has caused me to speed up my work on trying to incorporate "degree of difficulty/strength of schedule/whatever you want to call it". I will be adding entries that show the cumulative efficiencies of the lineups faced for players, so that it might be more obvious if someone is taking advantage of weak competition. Not that I have a problem with that - the Bobcats need to take advantage of any opportunities they get. It is just that I want a better idea if Adam's defense has really improved, like Ziggy and I think - or if he just cruising by, because of facing scrubs. More to come.

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Bobcats vs. Jazz Recap

11/15/2008

Detailed boxscore: Stats Page

Score: 104-96 Bobcats
Bobcats Record: 3-5
Efficiencies:
  Offensive: 118.2
  Defensive: 107.9
Meritorious Player: Gerald Wallace. Coincidence that Crash was more aggressive offensively with Jason Richardson out? Probably not. Good news: It led to 22 points on 13 fga and 14 fta, 9 rebounds (led team), 3 steals, 2 assists and a block. The Bobcats were +5 with Gerald on the court, with a net efficiency of +7.5.

The Bobcats bounced back from their worst offensive game of the season with their best effort, with an efficiency of 118.2. Solid work and while Gerald got the nod as Meritorious Player, it was a tough selection. Consider all these efficienct efforts:
Adam Morrison: 15 points on 8 fga, 1 turnover.
Raymond Felton: 23 points on 13 attempts, 6 assists, 2 turnovers.
Sean May: 8 points on 4 attempts, 4 boards in 19 minutes - and I would just like to say Welcome back, Sean.
Matt Carroll: 7 points on 5 attempts.
D.J. Augustin: Only shot 1 of 3 from the field, but still finished with 6 points, thanks to 4-4 from the line, plus 4 assists and 0 turnovers.

When over half the team has performances this good, it would take some serious malfunctions to undo it. And despite the final margin of 8, the Bobcats had some serious malfunctions. Namely, rebounding. Charlotte grabbed 23 defensive rebounds (including team rebounds) - Utah grabbed 23 offensive boards. That is not a good ratio. That is the major reason the Utah offense did as well as it did on the night, as a 107.9 efficiency is solid work, and well above average. The Bobcats should be thanking Ronnie Price for his off-guard efforts - you don't get called a shooting guard when you go 4-16.

Emeka Okafor really struggled, and was a major reason for the Bobcats rebounding issues. In fouling out after just 24 minutes, Emeka had also only grabbed 2 defensive rebounds. Both of the Charlotte point guards matched or bettered his effort.

Last couple of notes:
The starters got hammered: In a little over 9 minutes together, they lost by 4. More troubling: they allowed a defensive efficiency of 137.5 I am glad Sean is back and all, but matching up against an all-star in Carlos Boozer is a bit of a stretch for him right now.
Switching Jared in for Sean did not really help: That was the next most used lineup, with just under 6 minutes together. They were outscored by 5 in that time, with an offensive efficiency of 83.3 and defensive of 115.4.
I am glad they got the win, but...this was not the Utah Jazz. Andrei Kirilenko, Mehmet Okur, and Deron Williams all wound up missing the game. For the year, the Utah Jazz have efficiencies of 104.8 and 99.8. When only looking at lineups where none of those players are present: 108.9 and 124.2. A win is a win and all - but the Bobcats caught a big break.

It was encouraging to see the Bobcats bounce back against an admittedly undermanned squad. I know the Bobcats were missing Jason Richardson - but he has been off to a slow start and he was ably filled in for by Matt and Adam. Oh, and Ryan Hollins made more than a cameo last night. 15 minutes of action and led the team in +/-. Great to see that he is still working hard and making improvements.

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Bobcats vs. Jazz Preview

11/13/2008

opponent: Utah Jazz (6-2)
Efficiencies: Offensive: 104.5. Defensive: 97.6. Differential: +6.9.
Last Season: Teams split 1-1.
Game 1: Charlotte 98-92.
Game 2: Utah 128-106.
Charlotte's Efficiencies in last season's games: Off: 104.6. Def: 113.4. Net: -8.8.

Another game - another tough opponent. It seems like every night the Bobcats take the court, a playoff contender awaits (aside from the Knicks). Just challenges to overcome - the Bobcats took down Chris Paul and the Hornets, why can't they do the same to Deron williams and the Jazz? Well, they can - maybe. Here are some keys:

Deron is rusty - keep it that way. Deron Williams has only played in 2 of the Jazz's games so far, and they are not clicking just yet. Wednesday night, the Jazz managed to lose to the previously winless Washington Wizards with Deron coughing the ball up 5 times. In his limited time, he has shot just 26.7% from the field. If the Bobcats manage to defend the pick and roll as well against the Jazz as they did against the Hornets, they should be able to add to his misery.

Jazz may be short-handed. Mehmet Okur is currently at home in Turkey, with his ailing father. Prayers go out to Mehmet and his family. Andrei Kirilenko left Wednesday's game early with a sprained finger. Okur's outside touch and AK47's all-around chaos-causing game are tough to match up with - so the Bobcats may catch a couple of breaks here.

Ethical side-note: Should I not mention the positive impacts of a player's absence in a case like Okur's? It seems callous - but at the same time, it does relate to the game. I am torn, and would love for someone to either confirm it is ok, or to chastise my insensitivity so I can know going forward. Reader - please weigh in on this.

Go back to driving and cut down on the 3s. The Bobcats got away from their early season aggression their last time out and got 3-happy, jacking up 27 of them. With Richardson out, no one on the team needs to be taking more than a couple (yes, even you Adam - you are still trying to get your rhythm back). Attack the interior - Carlos Boozer is not much of a defensive presence (understatement) and if AK47 is not there, so much the better.

Really - this is a very good Jazz team and they will be tough to beat, even with a couple of players possibly missing. The real focus for the Bobcats should be on resuming their previous effort on getting to the free throw line and their continued improvements on defense. This is a tough stretch in the season - even with so many games at home, due to the high caliber teams they are playing. Weather the storm, learn from it, and be ready to take it out on the weaker (relative when you are talking about one of the weaker teams) squads they face.

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Crash's Chew Toy

11/13/2008


(Image from Getty images)
I know other people have commented on Crash's oral fixation - but I wanted to toss in my 2 cents. Does he have a hard time breathing with the mouth piece in? I know his voice has a very nasal quality, so maybe he does this to improve air flow. Maybe he wishes he could be chewing gum. I do not know what it is, but it kind of bugs me/kind of amuses me to see him out on the court, chewing away on that mouthpiece at every dead ball situation. So, those are just a couple of my thoughts on Crash's chew toy. Now, I request you do the same: Create a caption time. If you're skilled with PhotoShop, the original can be found here (from Getty images). Otherwise, put your best work in the comments.

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Bobcats vs. Denver Recap

11/12/2008

For the detailed boxscore, go here: Queen City Hoops Stats Page

Score: 88-80 Raptors
Bobcats Record: 2-5
Meritorious Player: Adam Morrison - 16 points (11 attempts), 2 boards, 2 assists, 1 block. The Bobcats were +10 with Hammer on the court, with a net efficiency of +21.6 in about 29 minutes and 32 seconds. Somewhat surprising - the defense was again ridiculous with Adam on the court, efficiency of 72.7.

Worst game of the season offensively. Best game of the season defensively. Unfortunately, this best was not enough to overcome that worst, and it was another ugly loss for the Bobcats. It is time to pull a Mike Singletary, and point fingers:

Last night was not a good one for D.J. Augustin. It took him 9 field goal attempts and 4 free throw attempts to get to 5 points. That is not a good return on investment. Compounding his shooting struggles - 4 turnovers in his 25 minutes, but only 3 assists. So, something like 18 possessions used, and only 12 points for the team to show for it (one of the assists was on a 3).

Raymond (K. Hessel) Felton - "The question, Raymond, is what did you want to be?". If the answer is a starting point guard in the NBA - well, you need to work on it. Despite D.J.'s struggles last night, the team was better off with him on the court. You managed 9 points on 11 assists, 5 assists, and 2 turnovers. So, not a horrible line. But, for some reason, when you were on the court, the team got smoked defensively, allowing 119.6 points per 100 possessions to Denver. With D.J., that number was 84.3. I know that you may have been facing different lineups, but, Raymond, that looks bad.

Emeka - just 2 points, really? 1 of 5 shooting - again, really? 8 rebounds and 4 blocks are nice (the rebounds are actually quite impressive for how few were available in this game). But, the Bobcats need someone to help balance out all the jumpshots - and some nights, Jason and Gerald are not going to drive the ball as much. We are not asking for 20 points a game - but 2? Jeez.

Speaking of jumpshooting - the Bobcats put up 27 3-point attempts. It is not like this was the first game where the Bobcats trailed late, and were trying to catch up. But they attempted 50% more 3s in this game than they had in any game so far this season - the previous high was 18. Over a third of the Bobcats attempts were from 3, 35% actually. Who do they think they are - Duke? As Larry Brown has noted, shooting jumpers does not get you to the line. And the Bobcats did not buck that trend. They took only 17 ftas to the Nuggets 28. Denver made 9 more fts than the Bobcats - who lost by 8. Just saying...

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The Bobcats are Slow

11/10/2008

If you check the team stats on ESPN.com, you will see the Bobcats tied for 11th in the league at 93.8 points allowed per game. That might trick you into thinking they are pretty good defensively, though I hope you do not fall into that trap if you have been reading this site regularly. Why do I call it a trap? Because the Bobcats actually one of the worst defensive teams in the league - and the numbers back it up.

You see, while the Bobcats allow a low average score against, they are playing at the slowest pace in the league - 85.6 possessions per game. League average is 92.7, over an 8% increase on the Bobcats' pace. When you account for the fact that teams average over a point per possession, those 7 possessions per game would quickly move the Bobcats down the defensive rankings. The good (well, kind of bad, actually) news: We know how to account for it. It is the whole reason for keeping track of possessions, and it allows us to look at defense on a per possession (or 100 possession) basis.

When we do that, the Bobcats do not look so good - horrible in fact. The Bobcats defensive efficiency for the year is 110.0 - that number is 27th worst in the NBA, a far cry from that earlier mark of T-11th. The league average is 103.6, though that mark will probably go up as the year progresses and teams start to click on offense a bit more. That is the worst part of this for the Bobcats - teams tend to start poorly on offense and the Bobcats are already giving up big (efficiency) numbers.

The biggest reason for the Bobcats' early defensive struggles: How well their opponents are shooting. Bobcat opponents have shot 47.4% from the floor in the early going, with an average points per shot of 1.246. The rest of the league has allowed marks of 44.3% and 1.205. Oh, And at this point the Bobcats cannot point to the refs, as they have allowed a free throw rate of 26.6% (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) which is below league average 32.4% (meaning that Bobcat opponents are taking fewer free throws per field goal attempt - so it seems the Cats are getting calls - or have been playing against jump shooting teams).

I did not intend for this whole post to flagellate the defense, so here are a couple of other things to note in regards to the slower pace:

Raymond Felton's assists - It may seem that Raymond has not been passing as well in the early going, as he is averaging only 4.8 assists per game. But when you consider that the team is playing slower and Raymond is playing fewer minutes...Raymond might not be doing so bad - in fact, his assist rate (assists per possession used - fga, fta, turnovers, and assists accounted for) is down only slightly from last year, from 30.1 to 26.6%. Oh, and the same goes for D.J..

The offense is not as bad as it looks - just as the defense is masked by a slow game, so is the offense - but in this case, it makes people think things are worse than they really are, rather than hiding problems. The Bobcats average only 88.5 points per game, 28th in the league. Their offensive efficiency is much better, at 103.1, 19th overall. Ok, so much better might be a slight exaggeration - but isn't being almost mediocre far better than what might otherwise be believed? Oh, and again, the Bobcats' undoing is shooting - in this case, their offense is being brought down by their 23rd ranked field goal %, 43.1%.

This concludes my public service announcement on the lying nature of numbers. I hope it might have been a useful reminder that things are not always what they seem (and that the Bobcats may (or not) be better than you thought).

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