Charlotte Bobcats 2010-2010 Preview: The Internet Says
Posted by Brett on 10/13/2010From NBAPlaybook - 2010-2011 Season Preview: Charlotte Bobcats:
While I think the Bobcats are better suited if they run the basketball more, I just don't know if it will happen this year. As I mentioned before, they have the wings/bigs to facilitate a running style, but they really lack a point guard who can be successful in a running system. It seems like they want to acquire one (after all they were involved in discussions that would have brought Devin Harris to Charlotte), and if they do, they will run more. If not, you may see the same kind of ISO/Spot Up offense that the Bobcats struggle with.
From RufusOnFire - Charlotte Bobcats preview 2010-11:
It's pretty clear the Cats wanted someone else to replace Felton, as they were linked to Chris Paul, Jose Calderon, and Devin Harris in trade rumors, but none were consummated, leaving Augustin and a still-recovering Shaun Livingston at the point. It remains to be seen what kind of effect Brown's clear distaste for point guards with Augustin's skill set will have on the team.
BobcatsBaseline is tackling their preview piece by piece, with a couple already posted - 2010-11 Bobcats Season Preview: Front and Center:
So there you go. The Bobcats are thin at the five. Larry Brown will again try to cobble decent play at the spot out of the available talent, but there's even less there than last year. Our playoff aspirations rely upon Mohammed replicating his 2009-10 season while staying even healthier than he did, and the Cats being able to play smallball for around 15-20 minutes per game.
And the other - 2010-11 Bobcats Season Preview: The Class of '09:
Instead, allow me (for perhaps the first time in our blog's three year history) to write in praise of a Bobcats draft.ESPN has some preview material - but it is Insider only - ESPN Charlotte Bobcats 2010-11 Preview. Included are a team forecast and player profiles from Hollinger - both interesting, but also disheartening - Hollinger's numbers see just 30 wins for the Cats as presently constructed.
Last June, the ‘Cats made team history by selecting two collegiate players who were NOT:
a.) Marginally Obese
b.) Undersized
c.) former BMX Euro-Champs
d.) Clinically Depressed*
*Ok, so maybe Adam Morrison isn't officially ill ‚ but his #3 overall selection surely led to an uptake in Prozac use amongst fans.
Yes folks, in the summer of 2009 the Bobcats really did select two quality, highly athletic wing players who figure to play prominent roles in the upcoming season.
From Sporting News - Charlotte Bobcats: 2010-11 preview (scroll down past the stuff at the top to get the preview)
After finally breaking through with a playoff berth for the first time in franchise history last season, the Bobcats appear poised to go backward this year. They let point guard Raymond Felton go in free agency and traded away Tyson Chandler for, essentially, nothing. The only shot at improvement comes from low-risk gambles like Darius Miles, Javaris Crittenton, Kwame Brown and Shaun Livingston. None of those players is likely to pan out into anything significant, and the era of Michael Jordan, Bobcats owner, is sure to get off to a slow start.
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Posted by James on 09/23/2010
There's no easy way to say it but this is my last official entry on Queen City Hoops as I've accepted a position with the Bobcats Radio Network as a Halftime and Post-game host. I appreciate Brett giving me the opportunity to fill up a few pages with my musings on this team and the NBA no matter how elementary my arguments may be compared to the Pythagorean records, efficiency stats, and plus minus numbers that make his case. (seriously dude almost convinced me that Allen Iverson should be a Bobcat).
I still believe that some of the best basketball analysis is occurring on blogs and was more than privileged to share the same web page with a professional like Brett who is really doing some groundbreaking work with his statistical breakdown of the game. As best I can I'll try to bring that deeper analysis to the radio broadcast, in small doses at the very least. And when I can't articulate it I'll have Brett do it himself as I expect to have him on as a halftime guest a time or two.
Thanks again for letting me have your ear over the past season, it was a fun playoff year and here's hoping for more.
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Posted by Brett on 09/16/2010
Sebastian at NBAPlaybook has taken a thorough look at the Bobcats transition activity (and personnel) and would kindly ask the Bobcats to push the tempo just a little more often. Well worth a read and look (lots of video) - Charlotte Bobcats need to get out and run more.
It was the offensive end where the Bobcats struggled. According to Synergy, their offense was ranked 22nd in the league with just .92 points per possession. If Charlotte wants see their offense to improve, they really need to try and get out in transition more, where the Bobcats really excel. The Bobcats were ranked 1st in terms of points per possession scoring 1.23 points per every possession the Bobcats got out and ran. However, they didn't run much. According to Synergy, transition plays account for just 12.1% of their offense.A couple of thoughts (and Bassy's reply):
- The Bobcats' transition plays accounts for 12.1% of their plays - where did that mark rank overall? Just trying to figure out how much room the Bobcats actually have to improve. With a large part of the defense relying on forcing turnovers, I would expect them to be running often off those.
(Sebastian) - They don't have a rank listed for % of total possessions. I did compare them to the high pace teams you think of off the top of your head (Magic, Hawks, Raptors, Warriors) and they are below them by a full % or 2, which at least to me tells me that there is room for improvement.
- I agree with Stephen Jackson, the Geralds, and Tyrus being built for transition - but Boris Diaw might apply to. Less in build, but in skill set. When Boris is at the 4, the Bobcats can have 1-4 run the break - when he is the center, the Bobcats have the potential that whoever grabs the rebound, 1 through 5, can start the break. Seems worth mentioning.
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Posted by Brett on 09/08/2010
A quick background on the idea for these posts before I jump into the numbers - the idea came when I was trying to figure out just how much the departure of Tyson Chandler was going to hurt the Bobcats. I pulled up the Swap Tool and plugged Tyson and Nazr in - and the results surprised me. The Bobcats are projected to become not just good, but great - in Tyson's absence. That did not pass the "Does this make sense?" test - and that was before even leaving the swap tool.
Notice anything? Their actual net efficiencies contradict the results of the swap tool - the Bobcats were better with Tyson than Nazr last year, so why would next year be different? That was what I wanted to investigate and try to put some numbers to.
So, that explains part 1 - Reasons for concern? The Nazr and Tyson Swap and now it is time for part 2: Replacing Raymond Felton with D.J. Augustin, Shaun Livingston, and Sherron Collins. This time, there is no false sense of optimism created by the swap tool - the Bobcats are projected to take a small hit with D.J. on the court, and a swan dive when Livingston replaces him. Wait - what?
Click on the below images to see what the swap tool is projecting - and then I try to make some sense of it.
The Bobcats with D.J. replacing Raymond
The Bobcats with Livingston replacing Raymond
Raymond has D.J. beat on both sides of the ball - Felton was a more efficient scorer last season and a slightly better defender. Overall the Bobcats are projected to drop 0.7 points in net efficiency. The defensive drop off may be a bit higher though, as D.J. was able to be hidden last season on defense as the backup, but the offensive letdown may not occur at all. Last season was a career year for Felton from the field - and D.J. looked nothing like the shooter he was in his rookie year or during his time in college. I am not saying the Bobcats will be better off with D.J. than Raymond - but there is reason to think that offensively, they could come out of this swap relatively neutral.
It is on the other side of the ball where I am really curious about the projections for Shaun Livingston - the Bobcats are projected to surrender 4 more points per 100 possessions, due entirely to Shaun relieving Raymond. That seems excessive, with Jose Calderon-ish defensive sieve capabilities necessary. So, I went to used some synergy - not the corporate buzzword, the incredibly cool basketball scouting tool: mySynergySports.com. And you know what? Shaun still does not look that great - at first glance. Here is that first glance - click to expand:
Shaun Livingston's Defensive Numbers from Synergy:
So, about that first glance - Livingston allowed 1.1 points per play, which is bad enough for 442nd in the league. Raymond was at 0.84, 61st in the league. Open and shut, right? Well, there is the whole matter of basketball being a team game, with that probably being even more true on the defensive side of things. Notice that in isolation, Livingston manages to be mediocre - 0.92 for 232nd in the league. No, it is not good - but it is not "All Matador" either. In fact, in the 3 areas of defense where Shaun acquired enough plays to rank, he seems rather mediocre, with ranks of 232, 225, and 307. Again - not good news, but not atrocious.
What is atrocious, however, is a couple of marks Shaun has where team defense would come in rather handy - Off Screen and Hand Off situations. In those 2 categories, Shaun gave up 1.24 and 1.17 points per play - while Raymond, playing for the best defensive team in the league surrendered just 0.87 and 0.51 in the same situations. Does Raymond's own good to very good defense play a part in that? Absolutely. Did his teammates' effort and the team's defensive game plan also play a role? Also absolutely. Would the same not be true in reverse for Livingston in D.C., with a team that gave up? Abso...you get the idea.
While the numbers understated the impact of Tyson's departure on the team's defense, they may be doing the opposite in the case of Livingston and Felton. If it turns out that Livingston just hasn't been able to regain his quickness following his knee injury, then the swap tool may be proved right. But if it is not able to account (yet - I am always tinkering) for team defense in a way that some numbers from Synergy indicate it may be lacking, then maybe this cause for concern is a bit lessened for the upcoming version of the Charlotte Bobcats.
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TrueHoop on Jordan's Ownership
Posted by Brett on 09/03/2010Grab a second cup of coffee or maybe print it out and carry it with you to lunch - but make sure to read this piece from Henry Abbott about Michael Jordan's Bobcats: Michael Jordan's Bobcat comeback. A quick excerpt:
When Jordan bought the team, there was discussion of more major changes to come. One was changing the name of the team. The other was bringing in another owner, to defray the losses Jordan was certain to endure.Henry pulls together a lot of quotes and info about the current state of the Bobcats - and it is certainly a lot more positive about the future of the Bobcats than the ESPN's NBA Future Power Rankings released earlier this summer, where the Bobcats were worst in the league by a comfortable margin. It is worth your time, go check it out.
Whitfield says both of those discussions are slowing down, in no small part because of the team's success. The name change, he says, is "not anything that we've decided to pull the trigger on. ... When I got here five years ago you'd never see people running up and down the street in Bobcats shirts, or Bobcats license plates on the front of cars. Now that we're starting to see that, we're asking ourselves does it really make sense to change the name and now have the third NBA team name in a small market like Charlotte."
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Posted by Brett on 08/30/2010
This off-season has been a fairly standard for one for the Bobcats in one facet: Change. As a team, the Bobcats have dealt with roster turnover quite regularly for the last couple of seasons. This summer was no different, as two starters from last off-season are no longer with the franchise. I am talking about Tyson Chandler and Raymond Felton, two players who helped forge the Bobcats' defensive mindset and aptitude last season and helped lead the team to a league best defensive efficiency mark. Yes, they're gone - and the Bobcats are going to be different.
Today I want to look at the impact of losing Tyson Chandler and some of the things the Bobcats may be able to do to offset his departure. Even during the course of last season, it was obvious what an impact Chandler had on the Bobcats team defense, which can be reviewed here: Tyson's Defensive Impact. That stretch during the middle of the season was a trying time for the Bobcats and it was largely due to their inability to overcome Tyson's absence defensively. The Cats slipped in the defensive rankings during that time, but when Tyson returned it was enough to catapult Charlotte back to the top in defensive efficiency. There will be no such return this year - Nazr Mohammed, Kwame Brown, and DeSagana Diop will be the centers on the roster on opening night, barring a trade (which almost goes without saying with the Bobcats, but nonetheless).
Of those three 5's, Nazr will be getting the bulk of the minutes, as long as his health allows. And while that would seem to improve things for Charlotte - well, looks can be deceiving. Last year, Nazr and Tyson played somewhat similar minutes with the other starters - Gerald Wallace, Raymond Felton, Stephen Jackson, and Boris Diaw. Here are their respective results:
| Time With Starters | Offensive Eff | Defensive Eff | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nazr | 454 | 103.4 | 109.3 |
| Tyson | 341 | 104.6 | 99.3 |
Nothing in that table can be construed as good news for the Bobcats - the team fared 10 points worse defensively with Nazr replacing Tyson, and 11 points worse overall. That expected bump in offensive output didn't even occur. The interesting thing is that when you look at Nazr's individual defensive numbers, you do not see a cause for concern. Nazr held his man to a PER of over 0.5 points better than expected - not great, but solid. However, the team defense took a significant hit - when Nazr was on the court last season, overall the Cats allowed 106.4 points per 100 possessions - without him, 100.8 (these numbers include the postseason).
It is clear that while Nazr's individual defense was passable - the team was very different as a whole with him on the court. The Bobcats aggressive man to man defense and the NBA as a whole's reliance on the pick and roll necessitate a big man who can move his move his feet and deter a driving opponent - Tyson is built for that kind of defense and Nazr is, well, less so.
Can the Bobcats not be successful with Nazr on the court? Give Larry Brown time and I am sure they can be. Last year's defense was planned around Tyson occupying the middle (which happened less than they would have liked due to injury). A slightly different defensive philosophy that accounts for Nazr's presence can be surely found - it may not be as successful, but it seems unlikely the Bobcats go from a league best defensive team to a league worst on the strength of one man. What that change might be, I do not pretend to know - Larry Brown, as the cliche goes, has forgotten more basketball than I have learned.
But I do have one thought - maybe we see a bit more of Boris Diaw in the middle this season. Boris played 751 minutes last season as the Bobcats center - and they thrived during that time. The team posted an offensive efficiency of 108.6 while allowing a mark of just 93.7. Is that a viable full-time strategy? No - against most team's starting centers, Boris would be in foul trouble in just a few minutes and the Bobcats would be handcuffed the rest of the night. But when Boris can be lined up against guys like - well, rather than provide bulletin board fodder, let me just say against less offensively minded (and capable) backups, the Bobcats can take advantage of Boris' strong base and defensive savvy.
And rather than going very small with Gerald shifting to the 4 when Boris is at the 5, keep the wings on the wing and pair Boris in the post with the Bobcats' recently re-signed power forward, Tyrus Thomas. The duo spent just 218 minutes on the court together last year during the regular season - but the team was certainly better for it. 107.4 points per 100 possessions for the Bobcats and just 91.8 points per against - limited minutes and all, but nothing to scoff at -and certainly fun to watch two very distinct players utilize their talents. Tyrus and his high-flying, backboard slapping help defense and Boris showing well on screens, managing switches onto just about anyone when necessary, and still forcing a difficult shot. It could provide a few minutes a night of a different defensive look for the Bobcats - and there is at least some reason to think it might be successful.
While Tyson Chandler is not Dwight Howard, he was still a very influential player on the defensive end. The Bobcats will have to take steps to seal up their defense with their ever-evolving team. Boris at the 5 is not the full-time answer - but based on last season's results, neither is Nazr. The team's defense certainly bears watching in the early going - because as it goes, so goes this team. The center is the last hope on defense, the linchpin - and the next time the team defense is discussed, the focus will be on the starting point, the first line of defense - the point guard and the change from Raymond Felton to D.J. Augustin/Shaun Livingston.
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Kwame and Michael Together Again
Posted by Brett on 08/24/2010
This is how I found out about Kwame Brown joining the Bobcats - I log on to twitter and at the top of my feed was this bit about Michael Jordan and Kwame Brown. So, I assumed it was a joke, some temporary meme that was running its course on twitter. However, a quick scan down the rest of my timeline showed it was no gag, but was in fact reality.
Kwame's signing puts the Bobcats at 4 centers on the squad - one of whom I have confidence in taking a shot that is not a dunk (take a bow, Nazr). While it was certain the Bobcats are going to waive/trade Dampier, this makes it appear unlikely that he will be re-signed following his eventual waiving, as he had previously indicated an interest in doing.
For more thoughts on the move, check out:
The Kwame Brown story will probably always be incomplete - from RufusOnFire
Kwame Brown - What? from BobcatsBaseline
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Bobcats Preaseason Schedule Released
Posted by Brett on 08/16/2010BOBCATS: Bobcats Release 2010 Preseason Schedule - from the press release:
The Charlotte Bobcats, in preparation for the 2010-11 season, will continue their annual trend of spreading preseason contests around the Carolinas with one game in Fayetteville, N.C., versus Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder and a second game in Columbia, S.C., against Ben Wallace and the Detroit Pistons.So, congrats to those in the ' Ville on getting to see Kevin Durant in person...and to those in Columbia, where Ben Wallace is the draw, my condolences. NBA games (even if they are just practices games) start in less than 2 months: Good times.
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