The MVP of the Bobcats for 2007-08 04/17/2008
When John Hollinger was breaking down the Mike Bibby trade for ESPN a couple of months ago, he made a remark that caught my eye:
A basic rule of thumb is that every additional point of PER is worth one additional win over 2,000 minutes.
While PER is not a perfect measurement, due to its inability to properly guage defensive contributions, it still serves a role in analyzing player performance. So, when I started thinking about how to guage which Bobcat was most valuable this year, an easy way to do so jumped out me: Calculate the wins each player's performance (and mintues) added to the team over the course of the season (relative to an "average" player, which in PER corresponds to a PER of 15). Given that one player led the team in both minutes and PER for the season, it is not hard to tell where this first list is going to lead us. But here it is any.
| Player | Mins | PER | Wins Added |
| Jason Richardson | 3149 | 18.4 | 5.35 |
| Emeka Okafor | 2618 | 17.4 | 3.14 |
| Gerald Wallace | 2376 | 17.6 | 3.09 |
| Nazr Mohammed | 1422 | 16.2 | 0.85 |
| Walter Herrmann | 174 | 12.1 | -0.25 |
| Othella Harrington | 166 | 5.8 | -0.76 |
| Jermareo Davidson | 322 | 9.7 | -0.85 |
| Ryan Hollins | 532 | 11.4 | -0.95 |
| Jared Dudley | 1384 | 13.6 | -0.97 |
| Derek Anderson | 396 | 10.0 | -0.99 |
| Earl Boykins | 577 | 10.0 | -1.44 |
| Raymond Felton | 2972 | 13.8 | -1.78 |
| Primoz Brezec | 267 | 1.5 | -1.80 |
| Matt Carroll | 2016 | 10.7 | -4.33 |
| Jeff McInnis | 1410 | 6.5 | -5.99 |
You may have noticed that only 4 Bobcats actually contributed "wins" on the season - and certainly not enough to outweight the "contributions" (I would use air-quotes if I were talking to someone face to face) of everyone else. By this measure, Jason Richardson is the clear MVP of the team (and Jeff McInnis...I can not even do it, I have reached a point where I do not even feel like pointing out his negative impact this season). But like I mentioned previously, PER does not measure defense...but if you had the PER put up by the man each Bobcats was guarding? That might be useful...and 82games.com has just that. So, now how about a look at Defensive Wins Created (using the same basic setup as for a player's own PER).
| Player | Mins | Opponent PER | Wins Added |
| Othella Harrington | 166 | 13.5 | 0.11 |
| Raymond Felton | 2972 | 15.0 | 0.04 |
| Earl Boykins | 577 | 15.3 | -0.09 |
| Jeff McInnis | 1410 | 15.2 | -0.13 |
| Walter Herrmann | 174 | 19.5 | -0.39 |
| Derek Anderson | 396 | 18.5 | -0.69 |
| Matt Carroll | 2016 | 15.7 | -0.69 |
| Primoz Brezec | 267 | 21.9 | -0.92 |
| Jermareo Davidson | 322 | 21.9 | -1.10 |
| Ryan Hollins | 532 | 20.7 | -1.52 |
| Nazr Mohammed | 1422 | 18.4 | -2.40 |
| Jared Dudley | 1384 | 18.7 | -2.55 |
| Jason Richardson | 3149 | 17.5 | -3.91 |
| Gerald Wallace | 2376 | 20.6 | -6.70 |
| Emeka Okafor | 2618 | 20.4 | -7.04 |
Surprised? I was too - though, part of that was the players who did not get many minutes were spared greater embarassment in both of these tables (do not worry, I will fix that). Another part? Quality of the opponent faced - something tells me Jason, Gerald, and Emeka were getting their minutes against better opposition than say, Ryan Hollins and Othella - so, these results need to be taken with a grain of salt. With that said - I would have to say the clear defensive MVP is...Raymond Felton. After commenting about his defense in the links the other day, I guess I cannot be too shocked, at least not by his performance. But I was stunned by where Gerald and Emeka placed. Two of supposed better defenders...and they are getting pretty well abused by the guys they guard? Not sure I want to think about that more right now.
So, time for one more table. In this one, I look at the difference between a player's PER and the man he was guarding to get the Net Per, and then I used that to calculate out the impact to a full-season's worth of minutes. No more hiding behind only 267 minutes played Primoz - your ineptitude will be demonstrated. And here it is:
| Player | Mins | Net PER | Wins Added |
| Jason Richardson | 3149 | 0.9 | 1.80 |
| Raymond Felton | 2972 | -1.2 | -2.30 |
| Nazr Mohammed | 1422 | -2.2 | -4.29 |
| Emeka Okafor | 2618 | -3.0 | -5.86 |
| Gerald Wallace | 2376 | -3.0 | -5.98 |
| Matt Carroll | 2016 | -5.0 | -9.80 |
| Jared Dudley | 1384 | -5.1 | -10.01 |
| Earl Boykins | 577 | -5.3 | -10.44 |
| Walter Herrmann | 174 | -7.4 | -14.48 |
| Othella Harrington | 166 | -7.7 | -15.41 |
| Derek Anderson | 396 | -8.5 | -16.70 |
| Jeff McInnis | 1410 | -8.7 | -17.08 |
| Ryan Hollins | 532 | -9.3 | -18.27 |
| Jermareo Davidson | 322 | -12.2 | -23.84 |
| Primoz Brezec | 267 | -20.4 | -40.10 |
What do we have? One Bobcat player who (by the measure of PER) was better than their opposition over the course of the season. I guess that makes Jason Richardson the Bobcats MVP, along with Raymond Felton as the Bobcats Defensive MVP. As for the LVP, I am having a hard time decided between Primoz and Jeff - Primoz was far worse in the time he actually player - but Jeff hurt the team a great deal more due to number of minutes he go (not his fault the coaches continue to see Felton as a SG, who cannot shoot). I think I have to go with Jeff though - basically he was the difference between where the team finished and the playoffs (his -6 wins created on the season, with the Bobcats finishing 5 games back of the 8th spot) - not sure if you can get much less valuable than that. Unless you start talking about the people who signed/played him...
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I am a link manager 04/15/2008
Yes, I remember that the last post I did was also "only" a links post - that is why I am going to be offering a bit more analysis of the provided links, so you can get your money's worth this time:
Wages of Wins looks at the Cats regression - and blames it on...Raymond Felton. Really - by his stat, WP48 (Wins Produced per 48 Minutes), Raymond has declined from average, to poor, to bad over his 3 seasons. Also, it is noted that Emeka, Carroll, and Gerald all offered less this season - and I can agree with the reasons Berri came to for the 3 except for Gerald. He blamed Gerald's drop in production on injury - but since Gerald's injury woes did not strike until February this year, that does not explain his performance up to then. I looked at this way back in December (see here) and it never really changed this year.
Is Chris Paul bad at defense?. The answer might be yes, after the numbers were looked at. What does this have to do the with the Bobcats, you ask? Well, since my first link dumped on Felton after my post about his offensive shortcomings last week - this post gave me a good opportunity to commend Felton for something. Unlike Paul, with Felton on the court, the Bobcats are actually better off defensively, improving from 108.4 points per 100 poss without him to 106.8 with him on the court. Even better? He does a very solid job on the man he is guarding (when playing the point), according to 82games.com - Felton holds his man to a 45.4% EFG% and a PER of 14.4. Those numbers would put him right at the top of the lists used in the CP3 defense post. Good work, Ray.
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I am a link manager 04/11/2008
A couple of links for you to checkout:
Empty the Bench looks at the Bobcats - and does not like much of what they see. A fairly comprehensive breakdown of the team (along with some quotes from me that I put together while watching last night's not quite up to expectations Golden State/Denver tilt).
Make your Windows-based computer a shrine to the Bobcats. No, seriously. I got an email from a pr person about this - I have not received a copy for free or any monetary gains - it just seems kind of cool. So give it a shot and let me know what you think (I have not used it, I cannot give it a full-recommendation - just to say that it looks intriguing).
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Everybody Loves Raymond...but why? 04/09/2008
From John Hollinger's outlook on 2007-08 for Raymond Felton:
Felton figures to take another step forward this season, as even if his finishing troubles persist, his outside shot should continue developing...the Bobcats have added enough scoring that he can focus on the drive-and-dish rather than driving for his own offense...All told, if you're looking for a breakout player this year, you could do a lot worse.
I believed it - Felton would take a big step forward this year, start to live up to his lofty draft status, and narrow the gap between himself and his fellow draftmates, Chris Paul and Deron Williams. The good news? I did not have any money riding on such an outcome - but the Bobcats did (and will continue to), with 3 years of mediocrity (from Raymond - that would be far too generous for the team) to show for it.
You may think I am being too hard on Raymond. If so, then go look at his Per 36 minutes Numbers and Advanced Stats from Basketball-Reference.com. What you will see is a player who has made very little improvement over the last 3 years. His shooting percentage continues to hover around 40% (he has made a slight improvement this year - but not as helpful as you might think - I will break it down further later). His assist totals and assist rate have been stagnant and his effort on the boards has actually gotten worse with each year. While his turnovers are down slightly for the year, his turnover rate is actually still worse than his rookie season - he just has the ball in his hands a bit less this year.
I mentioned his woeful shooting percentage - you would think someone who shot that poorly would not shoot often. Or you would hope it anyway. Felton, however, is third on the team (among regulars) in attempts per 40 minutes though. See the table below.
| Player | Points per Shot | # Attempts/ 40 Mins |
| Jason Richardson | 1.21 | 18.7 |
| Jermareo Davidson | 0.94 | 15.7 |
| Gerald Wallace | 1.32 | 15.3 |
| Raymond Felton | 1.14 | 13.3 |
| Nazr Mohammed | 1.21 | 13.0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1.13 | 12.6 |
| Emeka Okafor | 1.31 | 12.5 |
| Earl Boykins | 1.10 | 12.0 |
| Matt Carroll | 1.23 | 11.7 |
| Jared Dudley | 1.20 | 10.3 |
| Othella Harrington | 1.10 | 10.1 |
| Ryan Hollins | 1.55 | 7.1 |
His number of attemps seems to be out of line with his effectiveness in taking them. It would benefit the team a good deal if Emeka, Matt, and Jared were getting a couple of those shots that Raymond is taking. At this point, you say, "It is Sam Vincent's fault: He was playing Felton at the 2 with McInnis most of the season." You would have a point - except Felton's attempts per 40 minutes are up to 14.4 since McInnis left the team and Raymond moved to almost exclusively the point. Raymond seems to love to/being told to shoot, a lot.
Here are some more Raymond shooting numbers to digest:
1. His 3 point field goal % has dropped each year in the league: From 35.8% to 33.0% to 28.4% this year. The good news? He is taking fewer. The bad news? Because he is taking fewer (and making fewer) threes, his effective field goal % has actually decreased since his rookie year, from 44.6% then to 43.8% now. In a nutshell, he is scoring fewer points per attempt now, despite a slightly improved field goal % overall.
2. Raymond gets to the basket very well - and shoots horrendously when he gets there. Raymond takes 33% of his attempts from in close - comparable to point guards like Baron Davis (32%), Deron Williams (37%), and Andre Miller (32%). The difference? They all have an effective field goal % on those attempts of at least 10% higher than Raymond: Baron is at 59.4% from in close, Deron 61.5%, and Andre, a ridiculous 62.8% - while Raymond flounders at 49.2%. (All numbers from 82games.com) Being able to penetrate is great - one of Raymond's greatest attributes is his quickness - but if he cannot convert at a better rate, he is actually hurting the team by taking these shots.
3. Raymond gets his share of whistles. To stick with the comparable point guards (and to show that they are not padding their EFG% with trips to the line, compared to Raymond), Raymond does alright when it comes to drawing fouls on his drives. For the year, he has drawn fouls on 9.8% of his FGA, while Baron is at 10.6%, Andre 10.9%, and Deron an impressive 13.8%. That 1% (or even 4%) difference is not the 10% difference in EFG%. So, the good news from this? Raymond seems to get a reasonable level of respect from the refs on his drives.
4. Felton is improving at least one thing: Scoring from in close. What?! The last two bullets were about how horrible Raymond is at just this, and now I am going to claim that he is getting better? Well, yes, because he has improved this year - a great deal actually. Last year, those same numbers were 45.5% EFG% on shots from in close, and a foul drawn rate of 8.6%. So, it seems that Raymond is making the effort to better this area of his game - though...
5. That improvement seems to be at the expense of his jump shot - which has abandoned Ray. All the time Raymond seems to have spent last summer on scoring in the lane seems to have come during his normal time for taking jumpers, as he is beyond bad this year when taking a jump shot: 41.0% EFG% - down from 42.3% last year, and even further down from the 44.9% of his rookie year. This probably goes back to his declining 3 point FG% - but it would seem that he might want to split his practice time a bit more this off-season.
I think I have made my point - Raymond does not score well and the team would be better off if he took fewer shots until that area of his game improved. Does this mean I think the team should bench him, trade him, or let him go? No - not at all - but I wanted to take a closer look at some of these aspects of his game.
Let me close with this: I do think Raymond can be an effective/solid NBA point guard for a playoff caliber team. As I said earlier, he possesses good quickness, is a solid passer (7.2 assists per game is not bad, currently good for 9th in the league), and is solid with the ball (he is comparable to those same 3 point guards in Assists per Bad Pass - slightly lower, but comparable nonetheless). The good news? Raymond is still young - and does seem to be working to get better. Just remember: Chauncey Billups was another lottery pick point guard who started his career with only so-so results - players can and do improve. We can only hope that Raymond continues to pursue perfection in his craft.
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Emeka and the Offense 04/08/2008
I am keeping this one short and sweet...or just short. This post is just a companion piece to a blog post from Rick Bonnell, "Call it an Okafor effect: Winning". Bonnell points out the Bobcats have been winning lately when Okafor has been shooting more:
In each of four recent games (Memphis, Indiana, Miami, Utah) Okafor took six or fewer shots. The record in those games: 1-3. In each of the past three games, he took 11 or more shots. The record in those games: 3-0...Whatever the cause or causes, it comes down to this: When the Bobcats don’t throw the ball inside, making defenses contract, they stop being efficient offensively.
To me, just throwing it out there without the numbers does not seem right. Maybe the team won in spite of Okafor shooting more and lost due to other factors. Or maybe Bonnell is right. Either way, it made me curious to see what effect Emeka's shooting more (or less) had on the offense. And here are the numbers (Efficiency in points per 100 possessions):
Number of Shots For Emeka | Games | Offensive Efficiency |
| 0-4 | 5 | 97.8 |
| 5-9 | 21 | 98.7 |
| 10-14 | 44 | 104.7 |
| 15-19 | 7 | 103.7 |
Looks like Bonnell was correct - it makes sense that the more shots your 2nd (or 3rd - depends on if you actually think Ryan Hollins could maintain his current efficiency given more opportunities - I would lean towards no) most efficienct scorer takes, the better off the offense will be. Since I brought it up, here is the team, in order of points per field goal attempt:
| Player | Points per Shot |
| Ryan Hollins | 1.55 |
| Gerald Wallace | 1.32 |
| Emeka Okafor | 1.30 |
| Matt Carroll | 1.21 |
| Jason Richardson | 1.20 |
| Nazr Mohammed | 1.20 |
| Jared Dudley | 1.19 |
| Raymond Felton | 1.14 |
| Derek Anderson | 1.13 |
| Earl Boykins | 1.10 |
| Othella Harrington | 1.10 |
| Jermareo Davidson | 0.94 |
Seeing those numbers just furthers my resolve to write my next post about "Everybody loves" Raymond Felton (if you read that and pretended Chris Berman was saying it, you would have enjoyed it more). Raymond is pretty far down that list for someone who shoots as often as he does. More to come on that.
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Bloggers Pick MVP and ROY - Round 10 04/07/2008
It does not happen often...but this post will have nothing to do with the Bobcats (unfortunately, Jared Dudley did not manage to get a single vote for Rookie of the year). Today, Queen City Hoops is hosting the rotating "Blogger MVP/ROY Ranking - Round 10". For those unfamiliar, here are the ground rules: Bloggers submit their top 10 MVP candidates, and top 5 ROY candidates. Points are then awarded on a sliding scale - 1st place vote = 10 points, 2nd place = 9 points,..., 10th place = 1 point for MVP balloting, and for the rooks, 1st place = 5 points and so on.
20 blogs took part in this round (including this one) - here are those intrepid reporters of the interweb (by order of when I received their votes):
David & Lee (Dream Shake)
Ryne (Odenized)
Adam (RaptorsHQ)
Spartacus (3 Shades of Blue)
College Wolf (TWolves Blog)
Matt and Corndogg (Hardwood Paroxysm)
David (20 Second Timeout)
Brian & Andrew (Empty the Bench)
Ben Q. Rock (Third Quarter Collapse)
Don (With Malice)
Ryan (HoopsAddict)
Green 17 & Steve W. (Celtics Blog)
Alex (BrewHoop)
(WeRiteGoode)
Tom (Sactown Royalty)
Pradamaster (Bullets Forever)
Seth (Posting and Toasting)
Josh (Dinosty)
Jeramey (The Bratwurst)
That seems enough of an intro, so let us get to it - to the results (5th place first, culminating in the big reveal at the end):
Rookie of the Year
Also Receiving Points
Jamario Moon, 18; Glen Davis, 5; Joakim Noah, 4; Carl Landry, 2; Juan Carlos Navarro, 2; Aaron Gray, 1; Yi Jianlian, 1
5. Thaddeus Young (20 points, 9 votes)
On track to be Pennsylvania's most famous "Thaddeus" since Rep. Stevens (1792-1868); may not have as cool a nickname ("The dictator of the house") -WeRiteGoode
No coincidence that when Young started getting major minutes, the 76ers suddenly found themselves in the middle of a playoff push. -Adam(RaptorsHQ)
4. Al Thornton (24 points, 13 votes)
Because of his age (24), I'm *not* going to put the ceiling much higher for this guy. He'll replace Maggette well, though. - Ryne(Odenized)
He looks like a future 20 ppg scorer. -David(20SecondTimeout)
(I am more in the first camp - age matters.)
3. Luis Scola (51 points, 18 votes - 1 1st)
Steadily producing points and rebounds on a playoff-bound team. -Ben Q. Rock(3rd Quarter Collapse)
(Leads well into the following question...)
Again I ask -- why did the Spurs give him up for practically nothing? -Spartacus (3 Shades of Blue)
2. Al Horford (86 points, 20 votes - 9 1st)
(The first quote for Scola would fit nicely here, as well - granted it is the East - no need to worry, aptly captured in the following:)
Like Scola, he's producing for a playoff-bound team. It just happens to be not nearly as good. -Ben Q. Rock(3rd Quarter Collapse)
1. Kevin Durant (86 points, 20 votes - 10 1st)
(I gave Durant solo billing in the top spot due to his higher number of 1st place votes...and the fact that he just finished dropping 37, 9, and 8 in a win over Denver)
Look, we're not going to reward Durant until he starts shooting better. I'm sorry, we just ca....what? He's shooting better? Really? Crap. Stupid "Having to hold up our end of the bargain..." -Hardwood Paroxysm
Pretty solid rookie class, and even more so when you consider that the number 1 pick is only playing pickup games right now. I would have loved to put a vote down for Jared at the bottom of my list, but could not do it - too many other guys were deserving, as seen by all the talent in the "Other receiving votes" category. But, enough with the pre-game, on to the real reason you are here:
Most Valuable Player
Also Receiving Points
Deron Williams, 30; Chauncey Billups, 23; Tracy McGrady, 15; Baron Davis, 14; Carlos Boozer, 8; Chris Bosh, 8; Rasheed Wallace, 3; Brandon Roy, 2; Paul Pierce, 2; Al Jefferson, 1; Allen Iverson, 1; Andrew Bogut, 1; Antawn Jamison, 1; Caron Butler, 1; Chris Kaman, 1; Shaquille O'Neal, 1; Kevin McHale/Chris Wallace, 1;
10. Dirk Nowitzki (33 points, 9 votes)
In many ways, I almost feel that he’s more of an MVP candidate this year than last. Without him, the Mavs look a mess and all year he’s carried a Dallas team that’s looked like a shell of its former self. -Adam(RaptorsHQ)
9. Amare Stoudemire (37 points, 9 votes)
Having a great year, but the MVP can't...be MVP-caliber only for 25 games. -WeRiteGoode
Is it possible that he is more important to the success of the Suns than Nash? He’s been averaging 30 points and 10 boards over the past ten games. Amare: 1, Microfracture Surgery: 0. -College Wolf (TWolvesBlog)
8. Manu Ginobili (40 points, 10 votes)
Versatile, talented, committed on defense, surprisingly quick. Possibly the best player in the game at annoying other team's fans. That's got to count for something, right? -Matt & The Corndogg(Hardwood Paroxysm)
7. Tim Duncan (45 points, 11 votes)
The most consistent player on the most consistently good team for the past 10 seasons. He may be boring, but amazingly effective as well. -College Wolf(TWolvesBlog)
Often overlooked since his two MVP seasons, Duncan has the Spurs in contention for the best record in the West. -David(20 Second Timeout)
6. Steve Nash (60 points, 14 votes)
STAT is starting to get the pub, but Nash has been the rock for the Suns all season. -Green 17(CelticsBlog)
His shooting percentages this season are insane: .515 fg%, .483 3 pt fg%, .899 ft% -David(20 Second Timeout)
5. Dwight Howard (104 points, 19 votes)
In a league where the big man appeared to be going extinct, Dwight Howard has revitalized the center position and become the most dominant low-post player in the NBA. His game isn’t perfect, but his defense is much improved and there may not be a more difficult player to man up with in the post. -Brian & Andrew(Empty The Bench)
Incredibly good for someone still learning how to play basketball. -David(DreamShake)
4. Kevin Garnett (150 points, 20 votes - 1st)
Has really changed the thought process at Boston, but – what? – you want to award a guy the MVP for getting the other Celtics to play the way they're supposed to? -Don(With Malice)
Anytime you can turn a team featuring Ray Allen and Paul Pierce into the top defensive unit in the league, and one of the best in history, you deserve credit. -Pradamaster(BulletsForever)
(So, the answer seems to be...yes? I think I might agree.)
3. LeBron James (155 points, 20 votes - 1 1st)
His better keeps getting better. -WeRiteGoode
Even though the Cavs have been just ok this year, without Lebron they’d be at the top of the Michael Beasley hunt. With Lebron, they’re still that team that no one wants to play in the playoffs. -Adam(RaptorsHQ)
2. Kobe Bryant (172 points, 20 votes - 5 1st)
Still the best player in the NBA -David(DreamShake)
But most important, he’s the leader of a legit title contender, a world-class defender and there’s nobody we’d rather have on the floor on offense in crunch time. -Brian & Andrew (Empty the Bench)
1. Chris Paul (191 points, 20 votes - 13 1st)
Leads the league in assists and steals, and the ultra-competitive Western Conference in the most important category: wins. CP3 is the epitome of what a Most Valuable Player should be. -Spartacus(3 Shades of Blue)
From good to great sent his team from irrelevant to amazing. -Jeramey(TheBratwurst)
After an early season strangle hold on the "award", LeBron is getting very close to not even being in the top 3. Are we taking him for granted already? Just kidding - winning matters - and I would say that the right 3 are at the top, order to be determined over these last few games. It has been an amazing season, and whoever takes the award home this year will be able to say that they won it in one of the toughest fields of all time (so I hear anyway - being a child of the 80s, I can only have so much world perspective). With that, I am out.
If you are curious how the voting has gone throughout the season, here are the previous iterations:
Round 1: Brew Hoop
Round 2: ClipsNation
Round 3: 3 Shades of Blue
Round 4: Sixers4Guidos
Round 5: Pickaxe & Roll
Round 6: Hardwood Paroxysm
Round 7: CelticsBlog
Round 8: TwolvesBlog
Round 9: Hornets247
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Changing of the guard 04/03/2008
The Bobcats have now played 18 games since the release of Jeff McInnis - and they are not losers, which is not something we have been able to say about them often in the franchise's brief history. The Cats are 9 and 9 over those 18 games - even more impressively, 12 of those games were on the road. They went 5 and 7 in those road tilts, taking them from 4 road wins on the year to 9. To prove it was no fluke - the team's efficiencies during these 18 games: 106.7 points scored per 100 possessions, 106.9 points allowed per 100 possessions. Almost dead-even.
What is even more impressive about those efficiencies? Both are improved over the season numbers. For the defense, the change is slight - prior to McInnis' release, the team was allowing 107.0 points per 100 poss - so the drop to 106.9 is not a big one. But the way the offense has turned around is quite impressive - from 101.4 to 106.7 - a 5% improvement. Even when we eliminate the early season as the team was integrating Richardson, and only look at the start of December on - the offense was only scoring at an efficiency of 102.0. But what really changed?
I had expected that Felton would have shown some improvement in his numbers, given the (nearly) sole duty of running the point...but there was not much change there. Since McInnis left - 14.6 points/game, 1.09 points per shot, 39.4% from the field, 8.1 assists/game, 2.6 turnovers/game, and 3.15 assists/turnover - compared to 14.1, 40.9%, 1.14 pps, 7.2 assists/game, 2.6 turnovers/game, and 2.77 assists/turnover for the year. So, he is passing/protecting the ball slightly better, but practically offsetting it with the poorer scoring. So, it does not appear to be the McInnis effect on Felton that led to the turnaround.
The big difference? Probably the fact that McInnis got 26 minutes per game this year - and Earl Boykins is averaging less than 15 minutes per game since Jeff was let go. So, someone more productive is getting those minutes...like Matt Carroll or Jared Dudley, who have both seen their minutes go up over this last month-ish, to nearly 30/game apiece (partly due to Gerald's injury, as well). As noted in my last post - these two help the team win.
McInnis' departure has helped the team improve - though not necessarily in the way anticipated. While Felton was expected to be the beneficiary, he has not really changed significantly. Sam Vincent has though - without McInnis to plug in and chew up minutes, he has been forced to play The Hammer and the rookie more - and it has worked. It kind of reminds me of last season, when Walter Herrmann started getting minutes at the end of the year and played really well. So, expect to see both traded at some point (I am kidding - I hope).
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4 To Build On 04/01/2008
As titled, this post would seem to indicate that I believe the Bobcats have 4 players to build on/around. Really, it should either have a question mark at the end, or maybe, well, a "...maybe". Because that is what I am curious about. Do the Bobcats have the foundation of a good team in place? Or are we destined to several more years of this purgatory that is "good lottery team"? And how to answer this? The same thing I (almost) always resort to: To the numbers.
First, I guess it would be beneficial to indicate who these 4 I think may be worth building around are: They are the 4 Bobcats with big contracts (or who will probably possess them shortly), Jason Richardson, Gerald Wallace, Raymond Felton, and Emeka Okafor. While Matt Carroll and Nazr Mohammed are both locked up for the near future, no one is suggesting that they are starter material on a good playoff team. As for Jared Dudley...I do think he is a valuable player, and will be a fixture in the league for the next decade - as a solid role player. On to it then.
Over the course of this season, this group of 4 has played together for a total of 2693 offensive possessions - resulting in efficiencies that are a bit above the average team numbers. For the year, they have scored 101.9 points per 100 possessions and allowed 104.0 - a differtial of -2.1 points per 100 possessions. Compared to the team overall, at 102.5, 106.8, and -4.3, not bad. Can't really call it good though - it is still losing basketball: Plugged into the Pythagorean Wins Formula (here, if you care), the numbers for the 4 project to 35 wins during a season. Yippee.
Worth noting: Jeff McInnis played a large part in almost a third of those possessions - well, as large a part as you can play when you are practically invisible on the court. If we exclude possessions when McInnis was on the floor with our Not-So-Fantastic Four, the efficiencies go to - 101.0, 102.6, and -1.6. And the win total goes all the way up to...36.5. Wow, I was kind of hoping for more.
So, I continue to look for reason to be positive - and I find some: 2 to be exact. If I further break down who this group played with, there are two players, who when either is added into that open 5th spot, make the team a winner. They are: Jared Dudley and Matt Carroll. The numbers: 105.4, 96.5, and +8.9; and 106.0, 101.0, and +4.9, respectively. Granted, Jared has played only 277 possessions with the fearsome foursome (about 3 games worth), and Matt only 481 (McInnis, for comparison, was at 950). All of sudden, with Jared, the Cats would win 63 games, and with Matt, 54. Note: Not really since those 6 players could not play all the minutes, but it does seem to turn the Bobcats into a competitive squad.
Maybe the 4 should be 6 - it would seem that the Bobcats do contain the nucleus of a respectable club. Hopefully, next season, it will not take half the season (or longer) for the right guys to be getting minutes.
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Bobcats versus Jazz Recap - 03/25/2008 03/26/2008
I am not ashamed to admit this...but I did not watch last night's game. I did not miss much, unless I was really a closet Jazz fan. If I were, I would have been really impressed by my team's amazing offensive performance. But I do not cheer for the Jazz...I cheer for the Bobcats - so that amazing offensive performance becomes a discouraging defensive one. What did the Jazz do? Only torch the Bobcats for their worst defensive outing of the year.
Having just recently talked about the defense of the Cats (click here if you missed it), I suppose this is topical. Does not mean I want to talk about it though. So, I will keep it brief: The Bobcats gave up 132.0 points per 100 possessions - easily surpassing their previous "best" of 127.3. I am not sure which is more amazing - the 132 or the fact that they managed to go so much further beyond their previous number, a 4% increase on it.
Worth noting: The Bobcats were not slouches on offense themselves, scoring 106.0 per 100 possession themselves. Both teams shot well from the field, 50% or better. The real difference? Rebounds - the Cats grabbed about half of their chances on defense - which means Utah managed just as many. More shots per possession is generally a good way to score more points per possession.
If you want to look at more numbers for the game, head to the stats page and pull up the game - or click here.
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What about Emeka? 03/21/2008
After taking a hard look at his numbers, that cast a none too flattering light on Nazr, it seems only right that I follow that up with a similar look at Emeka. After all, they are competing (to a degree) for minutes - and, at this time, only one is under contract for next season. To the numbers:
| Month | Points/ 40 mins | Points/ Shot | Off Reb Rate | Def Reb Rate | Blocks/ 40 mins | Assists/ 40 mins | Turnovers/ 40 mins |
| November | 15.0 | 1.26 | 13.5% | 25.7% | 2.4 | 0.5 | 1.6 |
| December | 16.0 | 1.29 | 9.4% | 20.4% | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| January | 16.8 | 1.36 | 10.8% | 22.0% | 2.1 | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| February | 16.5 | 1.18 | 10.6% | 30.8% | 1.6 | 1.1 | 2.9 |
| March | 16.1 | 1.25 | 9.4% | 24.0% | 2.1 | 0.9 | 1.8 |
Emeka has been pretty consistent with his scoring - between 15 and 17 all season, and his numbers for pps do not waver too significantly. His rebounding numbers are up and down - but even when they are down, they are still very good, so no complaint from me on that. My only complaints? He is a poor passer, with the consistently low assists. For the most part, I am ok with his number of turnovers - big men can struggle with that (see Shaq), but his 2.9 per 40 mins in February was a bit high for someone who is not an offensive focus. All in all, I like his consistency, and contributions across the board - points, boards, and blocks.
But what about the ever important "team"? How is Charlotte faring with Emeka on the court (and off)? The results are somewhat surprising.
| Month | Off Eff | Def Eff | Net Eff |
| November | 97.2/105.4 | 101.0/112.9 | -3.8/-7.5 |
| December | 99.6/102.6 | 110.2/98.3 | -10.6/4.3 |
| January | 107.5/99.3 | 102.9/107.5 | 4.6/-8.3 |
| February | 98.7/103.2 | 111.1/122.1 | -12.4/-18.9 |
| March | 101.8/113.5 | 113.1/94.7 | -11.4/18.8 |
So, despite the relative consistency of Emeka - the team is all over the map. 3 months where they were better with him and 2 months where they were better, way, way better, without him. In December, that was in large part due to the inspired play of a recently acquired Nazr skewing the numbers. This month? Tough to explain how the defense is so markedly better with our best (only?) interior defender on the bench. Well, it looks to be a case of a small sample size - Emeka has not seen the bench much this month, on the court for about 2/3 of the available minutes. And in his absence, the most any other given lineup has played together? 10 minutes. Overall, 48 lineups have been used this month, sans Emeka, but all in very limited floor time together, totaling 168 minutes. With no other prominent lineup, the team seems to be matching up more based on the opponent, to good effect, as seen in the efficiency numbers for the month. Or, it could be a fluke, but it would be nice to think it might be competence.
Since I noted the consistency of Emeka in looking at his numbers, it is worth noting a a fairly consistent impact he did have: 4 out of 5 months, the offense is worse with him on the court, and 3 out of 5 months, did not manage even a point per possession. Not totally Emeka's fault, as previously noted, he is not the focus of the offense, but still, not a terribly encouraging sign.
Final thoughts: Emeka has been far more consistent than Nazr, though his overall impact on the team seems to be pretty fluid. And those two still do not seem to work well together - the team is at -10 points per 100 possessions on the season with them on the floor together. The team is still lacking the interior complement that Emeka needs - though what that might be is debatable, it seems clear that a 7ish footer that prefers to shoot mid-range jumpers, and does little defensively is not the answer, as Primoz and now Nazr have not clicked with Emeka. Sean May? George Hibbert? Brook Lopez? We shall see.
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And the defense rests 03/19/2008
A quick jump back to last week's game against Dallas - I know I have already done one of the briefest recaps ever (here) for this game, but despite only paying some attention to the game on the tv, I was still following the score online, just in case it got closer. And I remember noticing at the end of the 3rd quarter that as a team, Dallas was scoring about 1.5 points per shot. Which is incredible to me: No one on the Bobcats averages that, but as a team Dallas was at that mark. So, I assumed that this had to be among the Bobcats worst defensive performances of the year. I was wrong.
By the end of the game, the Bobcats wound up allowing "only" 122.9 points per 100 possessions - good for a tie for 7th worst performance of the year. The Cats have managed to do much worse - 127.3 points per 100 to the New Orleans Hornets on 1/18. Detailed boxscores for these games are available through the stats page, to check them out click here (and yes, I am going to continue to promote this page and the stats page - I find it interesting to look through, so there is bound to be someone else).
I am not going to be a "negative Nancy" this entire post, though, Mr. Hat. To counter my previous negative comments, I will point out the Bobcats best efficiency performances of the season. Only one week after the debacle against New Orleans, the Bobcats managed a complete reversal in Chicago, holding "da Bulls" to 84.6 points per 100 possessions (granted there are some differences in the offensive abilities between the two teams, but still an impressive performance). Another highlight to note: The Bobcats best offensive output of the season came less than 2 weeks ago against Minnesota, as the Cats scored at a rate of 121.1 pp100p (funny looking abbreviation - I will not make the toilet jokes - feel free on your own).
Looking up all these efficiency numbers at the extremes got me thinking - what extreme are the Bobcats better at? Offensive or defensive? And here is the breakdown:
| Efficiency Range | Record for Defense | Record for Offense |
| <= 100 points per 100 poss | 14-4 | 1-24 |
| 100 to 110 points per 100 poss | 9-14 | 14-15 |
| > 110 points per 100 poss | 1-25 | 10-4 |
From those records, it seems the Bobcats are slightly better off when they pretend to be a great defensive team than a great offensive one (it has happened more often too, so perhaps a bit easier to imagine). One odd thing that I noticed when looking through all the efficiency numbers: When the Bobcats play at a faster pace, their defensive efficiency improves (decreases - and there was not a strong correlation between pace and defensive efficiency, but they have trended that way). This was not what I expected (I thought that as the game sped up, less energy would be focused/available on the defensive end) - and a quick glance around the league seems to validate my initial thought. Taking pace numbers and defensive efficiencies for each team in the league, the norm is for defensive efficiency to worsen as the pace increases (and with a significantly higher correlation than the Bobcats have shown). Again, not one of those things that I can explain, but interesting nonetheless.
If you have made it this far, then you probably are still wondering what the title of the post is referring to: Again, one of those things I cannot really answer. I wanted to mention a few different items on defensive efficiency and it was the best I could come up with that remotely made sense. At least it was more creative than adding "Again" to the end of a previous title.
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Nazr Has Been A... 03/17/2008
Well, it depends on what month the question was asked in. In December, Nazr was considered a godsend - he was outplaying Emeka and helped the Bobcats to a 3 and 5 record at the end of the month (yes, 3-5 is not good - but it is better than the team has been playing this year overall, so worth noting). Since that early euphoria, things have begun to tail off. Personally, I had not noticed - really, what is the difference between 16 points, 13 rebounds and 13 with 11?
Those two pairs of numbers are what Nazr put up early on (per 40 minutes) in his Bobcats career and what he has been doing more lately. I would not have noticed, but for the "Breakout" articles I did recently (Part 1 and Part 2) - Nazr was the runaway leader of which starter caused his teammates' efficiency numbers to plummet. Which got me wondering - what has Nazr been doing lately?
| Month | Points/ 40 mins | Points/ Shot | Off Reb Rate | Def Reb Rate |
| December | 16.2 | 1.31 | 12.1% | 23.2% |
| January | 18.2 | 1.24 | 12.0% | 17.7% |
| February | 12.9 | 1.05 | 13.3% | 15.8% |
| March | 13.4 | 1.11 | 10.3% | 17.7% |
Those are some significant declines in his scoring efficiency and his effort/success on the boards has dropped dramatically after an early rush. More telling - how the team's success has changed with him - number pairs shown are with/without pairs:
| Month | Off Eff | Def Eff | Net Eff |
| December | 100.0/104.0 | 100.9/109.2 | -0.9/-5.2 |
| January | 101.2/107.8 | 101.3/107.2 | -0.1/+0.6 |
| February | 98.5/101.9 | 120.8/107.3 | -22.3/-5.4 |
| March | 100.3/111.1 | 113.1/102.4 | -12.8/+8.7 |
So, to answer the more recent question, what has Nazr been doing lately? Not much, helping the team lose, helping the NBA bring back high-scoring games (at least for the opposition), collecting a paycheck - a few possible answers. So, I guess to complete the title of the post - Nazr has been a ... disappointment.
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Bobcats vs. Mavs Recap - 3/12/08 03/15/2008
I just wanted to do a real quick recap of this game, even though it is a few days late. Why? Because of some tremendous quotes - not from players or anything, but my wife. She only watches games because I do - she likes sports, but not enough to sit down and watch a game on her own. But, since I came home and turned the game on Wednesday night (already into the 3rd quarter), she watched a bit. And here is what she said:
"This is like watching high-schoolers play middle schoolers."
With Nowitzki being guarded by Jared Dudley, Erick Dampier towering over Emeka, and Raymond looking up Jason Kidd's nose - Dallas had a distinct size advantage - aptly captured by her first comment. Her second - much more telling of what it is like to watch the Bobcats play this year:
"Not only size-wise, but the way they are playing. It looks like they don't know what they are doing."
It pretty much sums it up, doesn't it?
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You Make Me Break Out...Again 03/14/2008
No Foo Fighters this time...instead a link to a web version of the classic "BreakOut" game (called javanoid): Go break some bricks. Then come back and read this...or just read this - if you are only going to do one, stay here. Please.
Back to the task at hand: A follow-up to the Buddies Post of the other day - "You make me breakout"
This time, the only players being considered as the potential "breakout" teammates are the starters - they are the ones who are going to get the most minutes, might as well see who is best suited with whom (that may or may not be correct grammar - if you know, let me know - Knowing is half the battle). Oh, and I decided to go ahead and list the anti-breakout teammate for everyone as well, the player with whom being paired most dramatically hurts the team. Just curious to see if there are any consistencies in either.
| Player | Breakout Teammate | Off Eff | Def Eff | Net Eff |
| Emeka Okafor | Gerald Wallace | 102.2 | 104.4 | -2.3 |
| Gerald Wallace | Nazr Mohammed | 101.3 | 101.7 | -0.3 |
| Jared Dudley | Raymond Felton | 111.9 | 107.4< | +4.5 |
| Jason Richardson | Gerald Wallace | 102.6 | 105.3 | -2.7 |
| Matt Carroll | Raymond Felton | 109.5 | 105.6 | +3.9 |
| Raymond Felton | Gerald Wallace | 102.6 | 103.7 | -1.1 |
| Ryan Hollins | Jason Richardson | 104.1 | 107.5 | -3.5 |
| Derek Anderson | Gerald Wallace | 99.6 | 105.9 | -6.3 |
| Jermareo Davidson | Jason Richardson | 105.7 | 108.5 | -2.8 |
| Othella Harrington | Jason Richardson | 97.1 | 87.1 | +10.0 |
| Nazr Mohammed | Gerald Wallace | 101.3 | 101.7 | -0.3 |
| Earl Boykins | Raymond Felton | 115.3 | 108.2 | +7.1 |
| Player | Anti-Breakout Teammate | Off Eff | Def Eff | Net Eff |
| Emeka Okafor | Nazr Mohammed | 100.8 | 109.7 | -8.9 |
| Gerald Wallace | Jason Richardson | 102.6 | 105.3 | -2.7 |
| Jared Dudley | Nazr Mohammed | 106.2 | 112.1< | -5.9 |
| Jason Richardson | Nazr Mohammed | 103.4 | 109.8 | -6.4 |
| Matt Carroll | Nazr Mohammed | 98.5 | 106.0 | -7.5 |
| Raymond Felton | Nazr Mohammed | 102.9 | 109.5 | -6.6 |
| Ryan Hollins | Nazr Mohammed | 81.4 | 97.4 | -16.0 |
| Derek Anderson | Nazr Mohammed | 82.1 | 114.6 | -32.5 |
| Jermareo Davidson | Nazr Mohammed | 78.3 | 119.3 | -41.0 |
| Othella Harrington | Nazr Mohammed | 100.0 | 124.0 | -24.0 |
| Nazr Mohammed | Emeka Okafor | 100.8 | 109.7 | -8.9 |
| Earl Boykins | Gerald Wallace | 93.8 | 125.0 | -31.3 |
The tallies:
Good Teammate:
Gerald Wallace: 5
Raymond Felton and Jason Richardson: 3 each
Nazr Mohammed: 1
Emeka: 0
Bad Teammate:
Nazr Mohammed: 9
Jason, Emeka, Gerald: 1 each
So, there were some consistencies, or one anyway. And, umm...Nazr's performance in this requires some more investigation. I will follow-up on this in the near future. First thought: It does not bode well for the next 3 seasons. Jeez.
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You Make Me Break Out 03/12/2008
Ok - so I was going to embed the video to "Breakout" by the Foo Fighters...but they apparently do not want me to do that - "Embedding disabled by request" is displayed on the official video page of youtube. So, here is the link - click on it to listen as you read this. The lyrics do not quite work - but the title of the song is close enough, and I just like the Foo Fighters.
Finally, to the point of the article. I am focusing on which teammate helps each player "breakout" - not individually, but for the team. Following are the player pairs that result in the best net +/- for each of the Bobcats (with 100 minutes played together established for the minimum to be considered - not so relevant today, but it was needed to keep the "worst of" portion of this from turning into bash Derek Anderson day).
| Player | Breakout Teammate | Off Eff | Def Eff | Net Eff |
| Emeka Okafor | Matt Carroll | 107.3 | 107.5 | -0.2 |
| Gerald Wallace | Matt Carroll | 106.2 | 103.7 | +2.5 |
| Jared Dudley | Earl Boykins | 113.6 | 105.6 | +7.9 |
| Jason Richardson | Earl Boykins | 105.1 | 98.8 | +6.3 |
| Matt Carroll | Jared Dudley | 113.9 | 108.2 | +5.7 |
| Raymond Felton | Matt Carroll | 109.8 | 104.8 | +5.0 |
| Ryan Hollins | Jared Dudley | 106.1 | 103.3 | +2.9 |
| Derek Anderson | Gerald Wallace | 99.6 | 105.9 | -6.3 |
| Jermareo Davidson | Jared Dudley | 101.9 | 103.4 | -1.5 |
| Othella Harrington | Matt Carroll | 103.5 | 104.0 | -0.5 |
| Nazr Mohammed | Gerald Wallace | 101.7 | 101.2 | +0.5 |
| Earl Boykins | Jared Dudley | 113.6 | 105.6 | +7.9 |
Not sure if I should be surprised that Matt and Jared tied for best teammate - I have a feeling that this number is slightly skewed since they both just started getting more minutes recently (between McInnis' release and Gerald's injury) and some more variation might come back in as time goes by. It would have been nice to see Raymond's name show up in there; it would be tough, since he plays so many minutes - his numbers are going to be closer to the team average because of that - and the team has been so bad this year...still, it would have been nice. I might do this again but only allow the starters to be considered for the breakout teammate. They are the ones who are going to be playing - might as well focus more on them. Duly noted.
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Better Box Scores 03/11/2008
Since I spent last night waxing eloguent (or what passes for it from me) about Kobe Bryant, it made me feel motivated to do something useful. Which I did this evening. Inspired by a short lived idea from kenpom.com, I have made a page that creates HD box scores for the Bobcats' games, available here: Box Scores for Stats Geeks.
I am already working on a lineup version of the same thing - it probably should have come first since one of the reasons I started this site was to look more into lineups and the effects of different player combinations...but this one was easier. I currently do not make last season's games available (that is as far back as I am running the numbers for, sorry if you were wanting to revel in the misery of season one) but that will also change in the near future.
I know I have said this before, but a glossary type page will be in the near future, to help decipher the box scores. If there are other suggestions/requests, I would be glad to hear them. With the Bobcats' currently with a 3.1% chance of making the playoffs (as recently as last week, below 1%), I have a new hop in my step and you can expect slightly higher output on Queen City Hoops.
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